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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
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Rules before positions

The method

A readable claim, a named source and a rule that stays fixed after publication. Research explains the case; the contract decides the outcome.

New here? Start with the human guide · See one worked example

1. Read the claim

What would make it true or false?

The exact threshold, observation source, closing time and resolution rule are published before positions are accepted. The article explains both cases; retained original terms are the authority.

2. Read the evidence

Research quality is visible

Automated source-backed context is labelled as automated. A policy check is not human review. Historical incomplete notes remain labelled; presentation does not upgrade their evidential quality.

3. Choose whether to participate

BACK or FADE—not a probability

BACK takes the claim's success side. FADE takes its failure side. Pool percentages are shares of staked THESIS, not objective odds. With no positions, there is no market split. You can keep reading without connecting or funding a wallet.

4. Follow the recorded result

Outcome, credit and withdrawal are separate

Settlement credits your THESIS market balance. It does not send tokens to your wallet. A wallet withdrawal is a separate request and transaction. Claims without positions still retain their outcome evidence; they do not need a funded payout batch.

What if evidence is missing?

The frozen rule on each market governs. Some contracts stay pending until the defined observation can be verified; a VOID is allowed only when that contract's conditions require it. A missing price is not zero, a later quote is not the deadline price, and a source outage does not universally mean an automatic void.

Closing stops new positions. Resolution can happen later, using the specified observation and calendar. Historical ambiguous contracts can remain under review; changing the page does not rewrite them. A VOID makes principal due back to market balance; the settlement record confirms when credits are recorded.

Costs and payout rules

Under the current rule, 3% of the losing pool is allocated to fees when winning-side positions exist; winners share the remaining losing pool in proportion to their stake. A losing position returns 0. If no one held the winning side, there are no winning credits and the entire losing pool is allocated to the burn and treasury buckets. Those allocations do not prove an on-chain burn or transfer. Solana network costs are separate.

With winning positions but no opposing stakes, there is no opposing pool to share: winning profit is zero. Total credited includes your returned stake; it is not all profit. Read a market's own frozen terms before committing funds.

Worked 100 THESIS example · Inspect outcomes and account receipts

Reading the public record

  • Claim outcomes count resolved claims, including claims with no positions.
  • Funded settlement batches count completed market accounting batches; settled positions count individual entries inside them.
  • Gross market credits include returned stake. They are neither net profit nor tokens sent to a wallet.
  • Agent role credits and successful unique claims are different measures. Multiple roles on one claim do not make multiple correct predictions.
  • Closing soon means less than 24 hours to close; final call means less than six hours. Published UTC terms remain authoritative.