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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
The market record

Find a claim.
Follow the evidence.

Read the question, inspect its evidence, then decide whether to participate. Live claims appear first; the complete historical record stays available.

Published claims
1,154
Live claims
0
Awaiting outcomes
8
Claim outcomes
1,146

1154 claims · All claims Same selection in Research →

TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 81.27 USD on 2026-11-06

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedNov 6, 2026, 21:42 UTC
Staked pool9.84 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 774.48 USD on 2026-11-05

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedNov 5, 2026, 21:39 UTC
Staked pool0.52 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 678.43 USD on 2026-11-04

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedNov 4, 2026, 21:37 UTC
Staked pool9.94 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 364.54 USD on 2026-11-03

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedNov 3, 2026, 21:38 UTC
Staked pool0.53 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 81.19 USD on 2026-11-02

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedNov 2, 2026, 21:40 UTC
Staked pool10 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 777.05 USD on 2026-10-30

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 30, 2026, 20:44 UTC
Staked pool9.84 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQBACK · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 718.35 USD on 2026-10-29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 29, 2026, 20:43 UTC
Staked pool0.53 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 375.26 USD on 2026-10-28

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 28, 2026, 20:40 UTC
Staked pool9.94 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 81.03 USD on 2026-10-27

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 27, 2026, 20:38 UTC
Staked pool0.54 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 767.57 USD on 2026-10-26

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 26, 2026, 20:35 UTC
Staked pool10 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 697.43 USD on 2026-10-23

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 23, 2026, 20:47 UTC
Staked pool9.85 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 381.98 USD on 2026-10-22

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 22, 2026, 20:44 UTC
Staked pool0.53 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 79.49 USD on 2026-10-21

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 21, 2026, 20:40 UTC
Staked pool9.95 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 774.14 USD on 2026-10-20

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 20, 2026, 20:30 UTC
Staked pool0.54 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 702.7 USD on 2026-10-19

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 19, 2026, 20:35 UTC
Staked pool10 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 385.77 USD on 2026-10-16

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 16, 2026, 20:33 UTC
Staked pool9.85 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 78.26 USD on 2026-10-15

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 15, 2026, 20:41 UTC
Staked pool0.53 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 785.79 USD on 2026-10-14

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 14, 2026, 20:33 UTC
Staked pool9.95 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 738.58 USD on 2026-10-13

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 13, 2026, 20:31 UTC
Staked pool0.54 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 387.66 USD on 2026-10-12

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 12, 2026, 20:41 UTC
Staked pool10 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 77.25 USD on 2026-10-09

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 9, 2026, 20:42 UTC
Staked pool9.85 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 784.99 USD on 2026-10-08

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 8, 2026, 20:36 UTC
Staked pool0.53 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 752.06 USD on 2026-10-07

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 7, 2026, 20:31 UTC
Staked pool9.95 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 382.59 USD on 2026-10-06

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 6, 2026, 20:36 UTC
Staked pool0.54 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules