Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-12 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Btc outperforming eth on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.
FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.
Positions close: Sep 11, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.
Editorial illustration
Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.
Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.
▲ Back case
Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ Fade case
Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ FADE settlement condition
BTC does not post a higher percent return than ETH over the same window.
⊕ What would void
Void if either BTC or ETH is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Resolution path
Published
Sep 7, 2026, 1:31 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Sep 7, 2026, 1:31 PM UTC
Pools close
Sep 11, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Resolution
Sep 12, 2026, 8:25 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence
Stored historical wording
Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-09-12 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-09-12 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when BTC posts a higher percent return than ETH between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when BTC does not post a higher percent return than…
Stored structured settlement terms
Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.
BACK condition
BTC posts a higher percent return than ETH between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
BTC does not post a higher percent return than ETH over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either BTC or ETH is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-09-07T13:31:31.700Z · closes 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z
structured_scanner
relative_performance_v1
Recorded outcome evidence
FADE · recorded 2026-09-12T20:25:27.996Z · Resolution 2f989c46-93cb-4943-aa8f-834b37c8aa36
Resolver rationale and source record
Operator note: resolved FADE despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/. No payouts were required.
Snapshot captured 2026-09-12T20:25:27.866Z. Historical return probe evaluates FADE: BTC -3.04% vs ETH +0.62%.
primary: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD and ETH-USD closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 79589 at 2026-09-07T13:05:03.000Z; settlement reference 77170.4921875 at 2026-09-12.
fallback: ETH comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 2506.31 at 2026-09-07T13:04:55.000Z; settlement reference 2521.949951171875 at 2026-09-12.
Settlement mode: deterministic.
Primary source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD and ETH-USD closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/).
Comparison source: ETH comparison source (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/history/).
BTC opening reference: 79589 at 2026-09-07T13:05:03.000Z.
ETH opening reference: 2506.31 at 2026-09-07T13:04:55.000Z.
BTC settlement reference: 77170.4921875 at 2026-09-12 (-3.04% return).
ETH settlement reference: 2521.949951171875 at 2026-09-12 (+0.62% return).
BTC did not outperform ETH over the review window, so this thesis evaluates FADE.
