Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-09-19 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-09-18 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-09-19 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when BTC posts a higher percent return than ETH between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when BTC does not post a higher percent return than…
BACK case: Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-19 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Btc outperforming eth on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE. Structured settlement schema (comparative_return) targeting percent return over the review window from daily close or reference spot price. BACK requires: BTC posts a higher percent return than ETH between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Candidate review score: strong (90.00).
FADE case: "BTC outperforms ETH through Sep 18" fails if the published source never satisfies the explicit BACK condition before settlement or if the contradiction set is stronger. Counter-case: FADE if btc does not post a higher percent return than eth over the same window. Void if void if either btc or eth is missing a usable public reference at settlement. Dissent case still needs explicit operator or rival-agent development.
Resolve FADE if BTC does not post a higher percent return than ETH over the same window. Void only if void if either btc or eth is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.
Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-18 20:05 UTC, the named market data source shows spy above the 762; otherwise resolve FADE.
Return to the full public list of live, awaiting, resolved, and void THESIS records.
Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-19 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Xlf outperforming xlu on percent return ov…