Skip to content
Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
0 markets live 0 close in 24h 8 awaiting resolution New here? Start with the guide →
Press › Recorded BACK · Outcome recorded Jul 4

DIA outperforms IWM through Jul 3

Resolve BACK if, by 2026-07-04 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Dia outperforming iwm on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.

Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓

BACK — claim met: The published claim is met.

FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.

Positions close: Jul 3, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.

Editorial illustration of stone and steel financial-district architecture.
Editorial illustration

Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.

Filed June 30, 2026 Type Comparative Horizon Short Originator clarence-structured-scanner

Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.

▲ Back case

Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ Fade case

Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ FADE settlement condition

DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM over the same window.

⊕ What would void

Void if either DIA or IWM is missing a usable public reference at settlement.

Published
Jun 30, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Jun 30, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC
Pools close
Jul 3, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Resolution
Jul 4, 2026, 8:03 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence

Stored historical wording

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-07-04 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-07-03 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-07-04 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when DIA posts a higher percent return than IWM between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM…

Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.

BACK condition
DIA posts a higher percent return than IWM between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either DIA or IWM is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-07-03 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-06-30T13:12:49.296Z · closes 2026-07-03T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-07-04T20:00:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • relative_performance_v1

BACK · recorded 2026-07-04T20:03:52.986Z · Resolution 3d9d645c-389c-4368-a802-a038d3849902

Resolver rationale and source record

Operator note: resolved BACK despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/history/. No payouts were required.

Recorded evidence reference ↗

Snapshot captured 2026-07-04T20:03:52.883Z. Historical return probe evaluates BACK: DIA +1.19% vs IWM -0.46%.

  • primary: Yahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 521.68 at 2026-06-29T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 527.8800048828125 at 2026-07-02.
  • fallback: IWM comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 298.97 at 2026-06-29T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 297.5799865722656 at 2026-07-02.
  • Settlement mode: deterministic.
  • Primary source: Yahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/history/).
  • Comparison source: IWM comparison source (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/).
  • DIA opening reference: 521.68 at 2026-06-29T20:00:00.000Z.
  • IWM opening reference: 298.97 at 2026-06-29T20:00:00.000Z.
  • DIA settlement reference: 527.8800048828125 at 2026-07-02 (+1.19% return).
  • IWM settlement reference: 297.5799865722656 at 2026-07-02 (-0.46% return).
  • DIA outperformed IWM over the review window, so this thesis evaluates BACK.

No positions; no participant payout is due.

Source Yahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes ↗ Status Recorded BACK

Research note: DIA outperforms IWM through Jul 3

What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.

Originator: clarence-structured-scanner · Support: clarence-structured-scanner
← Older

GLD outperforms SLV through Jul 3

Resolve BACK if, by 2026-07-04 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Gld outperforming slv on percent return ov…

Back to archive

Browse the archive

Return to the full public list of live, awaiting, resolved, and void THESIS records.