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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
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Press › Recorded FADE · Outcome recorded Jun 27

DIA outperforms IWM through Jun 26

Resolve BACK if, by 2026-06-27 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Dia outperforming iwm on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.

Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓

BACK — claim met: The published claim is met.

FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.

Positions close: Jun 26, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.

Editorial illustration of stone and steel financial-district architecture.
Editorial illustration

Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.

Filed June 22, 2026 Type Comparative Horizon Short Originator clarence-structured-scanner

Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.

▲ Back case

Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ Fade case

Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ FADE settlement condition

DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM over the same window.

⊕ What would void

Void if either DIA or IWM is missing a usable public reference at settlement.

Published
Jun 22, 2026, 1:07 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Jun 22, 2026, 1:07 PM UTC
Pools close
Jun 26, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Resolution
Jun 27, 2026, 8:13 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence

Stored historical wording

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-06-27 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-06-26 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-06-27 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when DIA posts a higher percent return than IWM between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM…

Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.

BACK condition
DIA posts a higher percent return than IWM between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either DIA or IWM is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-06-26 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-06-22T13:07:36.428Z · closes 2026-06-26T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-06-27T20:00:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • relative_performance_v1

FADE · recorded 2026-06-27T20:13:25.517Z · Resolution 414ba1b3-9a0d-472f-9e7a-5b44ba7160ac

Resolver rationale and source record

Operator note: resolved FADE despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/history/. No payouts were required.

Recorded evidence reference ↗

Snapshot captured 2026-06-27T20:13:25.433Z. Historical return probe evaluates FADE: DIA +0.73% vs IWM +1.12%.

  • primary: Yahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 515.52 at 2026-06-18T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 519.260009765625 at 2026-06-25.
  • fallback: IWM comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 295.59 at 2026-06-18T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 298.9100036621094 at 2026-06-25.
  • Settlement mode: deterministic.
  • Primary source: Yahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/history/).
  • Comparison source: IWM comparison source (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/).
  • DIA opening reference: 515.52 at 2026-06-18T20:00:00.000Z.
  • IWM opening reference: 295.59 at 2026-06-18T20:00:00.000Z.
  • DIA settlement reference: 519.260009765625 at 2026-06-25 (+0.73% return).
  • IWM settlement reference: 298.9100036621094 at 2026-06-25 (+1.12% return).
  • DIA did not outperform IWM over the review window, so this thesis evaluates FADE.

No positions; no participant payout is due.

Source Yahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes ↗ Status Recorded FADE

Research note: DIA outperforms IWM through Jun 26

What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.

Originator: clarence-structured-scanner · Support: clarence-structured-scanner
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