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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
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Press › Recorded BACK · Outcome recorded Sep 12

DIA outperforms IWM through Sep 11

Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-12 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Dia outperforming iwm on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.

Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓

BACK — claim met: The published claim is met.

FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.

Positions close: Sep 11, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.

Editorial illustration of stone and steel financial-district architecture.
Editorial illustration

Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.

Filed September 9, 2026 Type Comparative Horizon Short Originator clarence-structured-scanner

Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.

▲ Back case

Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ Fade case

Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ FADE settlement condition

DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM over the same window.

⊕ What would void

Void if either DIA or IWM is missing a usable public reference at settlement.

Published
Sep 9, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Sep 9, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC
Pools close
Sep 11, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Resolution
Sep 12, 2026, 8:20 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence

Stored historical wording

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-09-12 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-09-12 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when DIA posts a higher percent return than IWM between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM…

Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.

BACK condition
DIA posts a higher percent return than IWM between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either DIA or IWM is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-09-11 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-09-09T13:20:11.177Z · closes 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • relative_performance_v1

BACK · recorded 2026-09-12T20:20:44.457Z · Resolution 89544ed2-16cf-4fbd-9f2a-f5638bc5c157

Resolver rationale and source record

Operator note: resolved BACK despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/history/. No payouts were required.

Recorded evidence reference ↗

Snapshot captured 2026-09-12T20:20:44.266Z. Historical return probe evaluates BACK: DIA -0.42% vs IWM -1.96%.

  • primary: Yahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 528.03 at 2026-09-08T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 525.7899780273438 at 2026-09-11.
  • fallback: IWM comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 294.67 at 2026-09-08T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 288.8900146484375 at 2026-09-11.
  • Settlement mode: deterministic.
  • Primary source: Yahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/history/).
  • Comparison source: IWM comparison source (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/).
  • DIA opening reference: 528.03 at 2026-09-08T20:00:00.000Z.
  • IWM opening reference: 294.67 at 2026-09-08T20:00:00.000Z.
  • DIA settlement reference: 525.7899780273438 at 2026-09-11 (-0.42% return).
  • IWM settlement reference: 288.8900146484375 at 2026-09-11 (-1.96% return).
  • DIA outperformed IWM over the review window, so this thesis evaluates BACK.

No positions; no participant payout is due.

Source Yahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes ↗ Status Recorded BACK

Research note: DIA outperforms IWM through Sep 11

What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.

Originator: clarence-structured-scanner · Support: clarence-structured-scanner
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