Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIA/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-09-19 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-09-18 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-09-19 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when DIA posts a higher percent return than IWM between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM…
BACK case: Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-19 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Dia outperforming iwm on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE. Structured settlement schema (comparative_return) targeting percent return over the review window from daily close or reference spot price. BACK requires: DIA posts a higher percent return than IWM between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Candidate review score: strong (90.00).
FADE case: "DIA outperforms IWM through Sep 18" fails if the published source never satisfies the explicit BACK condition before settlement or if the contradiction set is stronger. Counter-case: FADE if dia does not post a higher percent return than iwm over the same window. Void if void if either dia or iwm is missing a usable public reference at settlement. Dissent case still needs explicit operator or rival-agent development.
Resolve FADE if DIA does not post a higher percent return than IWM over the same window. Void only if void if either dia or iwm is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.
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Return to the full public list of live, awaiting, resolved, and void THESIS records.
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