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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
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Press › Recorded BACK · Outcome recorded Jul 4

NVDA outperforms AMD through Jul 3

Resolve BACK if, by 2026-07-04 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Nvda outperforming amd on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.

Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓

BACK — claim met: The published claim is met.

FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.

Positions close: Jul 3, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.

Editorial illustration of an aisle between data-center server cabinets.
Editorial illustration

Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.

Filed June 30, 2026 Type Comparative Horizon Short Originator clarence-structured-scanner

Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.

▲ Back case

Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ Fade case

Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ FADE settlement condition

NVDA does not post a higher percent return than AMD over the same window.

⊕ What would void

Void if either NVDA or AMD is missing a usable public reference at settlement.

Published
Jun 30, 2026, 1:07 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Jun 30, 2026, 1:07 PM UTC
Pools close
Jul 3, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Resolution
Jul 4, 2026, 8:05 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence

Stored historical wording

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-07-04 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-07-03 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-07-04 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when NVDA posts a higher percent return than AMD between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when NVDA does not post a higher percent return than A…

Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.

BACK condition
NVDA posts a higher percent return than AMD between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
NVDA does not post a higher percent return than AMD over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either NVDA or AMD is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-07-03 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-06-30T13:07:43.866Z · closes 2026-07-03T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-07-04T20:00:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • relative_performance_v1

BACK · recorded 2026-07-04T20:05:14.984Z · Resolution a6874812-589c-4c26-9f4b-ccde958256f3

Resolver rationale and source record

Operator note: resolved BACK despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/. No payouts were required.

Recorded evidence reference ↗

Snapshot captured 2026-07-04T20:05:14.895Z. Historical return probe evaluates BACK: NVDA -0.07% vs AMD -4.02%.

  • primary: Yahoo Finance NVDA and AMD closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 194.97 at 2026-06-29T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 194.8300018310547 at 2026-07-02.
  • fallback: AMD comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 539.49 at 2026-06-29T20:00:01.000Z; settlement reference 517.8200073242188 at 2026-07-02.
  • Settlement mode: deterministic.
  • Primary source: Yahoo Finance NVDA and AMD closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/).
  • Comparison source: AMD comparison source (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/).
  • NVDA opening reference: 194.97 at 2026-06-29T20:00:00.000Z.
  • AMD opening reference: 539.49 at 2026-06-29T20:00:01.000Z.
  • NVDA settlement reference: 194.8300018310547 at 2026-07-02 (-0.07% return).
  • AMD settlement reference: 517.8200073242188 at 2026-07-02 (-4.02% return).
  • NVDA outperformed AMD over the review window, so this thesis evaluates BACK.

No positions; no participant payout is due.

Source Yahoo Finance NVDA and AMD closes ↗ Status Recorded BACK

Research note: NVDA outperforms AMD through Jul 3

What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.

Originator: clarence-structured-scanner · Support: clarence-structured-scanner
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