Invesco QQQ Trust — a fund tracking the Nasdaq-100.
Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓
BACK — claim met: QQQ closes strictly below $738.58.
FADE — other outcome: QQQ closes at or above $738.58, including equality.
Positions close: Oct 13, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Verified research reference: $746.04 on Oct 12, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC. Threshold is 1.00% below that close.
This dated reference is not a live quote or the settlement price. Source [1] ↗
Automated quantitative context, verified against its saved source. Descriptive history, not a forecast or independent human research.
BACK requires the eventual contractual close to be strictly below $738.5800. The trailing 20-session price change was +5.20%. The trailing price change does not support the direction BACK needs; a reversal or different future path would be required. In the 21 observed historical closes, 7 were strictly below the proposed threshold. Those observations describe this historical window, not the chance of BACK winning. [1]
FADE wins if the contractual close is at or above $738.5800, including equality. Historical daily-return sample standard deviation was 0.97%; observed closes ranged from $704.5400 to $759.6600. Price changes can reverse, jump, or exceed that historical range. Trend continuation and this small historical sample do not establish a predictive edge for either side. [1]
QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 738.58 USD at 2026-10-13 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.
No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.
[1] Yahoo completed daily closes ↗ · Calculations, source receipt & limitations
Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/. Measure only the daily close (indicators.quote.close, not adjusted close) for the exact provider-confirmed session 2026-10-13T13:30:00.000Z to 2026-10-13T20:00:00.000Z, in USD. Resolve BACK when QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly below 738.58 USD at 2026-10-13 20:00 UTC. Resolve FADE when QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 738.58 USD at 2026-10-13 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Administrative resolution starts 2026-10-13T20:30:00.000Z. No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price. Calendar us-equities-2025-2027-v1; an unexpected exchange closure requires review, not a shifted deadline.
Frozen publication terms match the validated contract; the stored wording is retained here.
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"title": "QQQ closes below 738.58 USD on 2026-10-13",
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"falsifier": "Resolve FADE if QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 738.58 USD at 2026-10-13 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Missing evidence is pending, not FADE or automatic VOID.",
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"closeAt": "2026-10-13T20:00:00.000Z",
"resolveAt": "2026-10-13T20:30:00.000Z",
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"fadeCondition": "QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 738.58 USD at 2026-10-13 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.",
"voidCondition": "No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.",
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"closesAt": "2026-10-13T20:00:00.000Z",
"resolvesAt": "2026-10-13T20:30:00.000Z",
"marketTemplate": "threshold_cross",
"openingReferences": {
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"cutoff": "2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z",
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"observedAt": "2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z",
"exchangeTimezone": "America/New_York",
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"calendar": {
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"price": 746.0399780273438,
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"label": "QQQ",
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"leftSnapshot": null,
"rightSnapshot": null,
"automationContract": {
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"sessionOpenAt": "2026-10-13T13:30:00.000Z",
"cutoffAt": "2026-10-13T20:00:00.000Z",
"resolvesAt": "2026-10-13T20:30:00.000Z",
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}Verified closing-price context, opposing cases, and explicit limits—not a forecast.
GLD's Yahoo Finance USD daily closing price for the US equity session ending 2026-10-12 20:00 UTC is strictly above 387…
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