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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
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Press › Recorded BACK · Outcome recorded Jul 4

QQQ outperforms IWM through Jul 3

Resolve BACK if, by 2026-07-04 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Qqq outperforming iwm on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.

Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓

BACK — claim met: The published claim is met.

FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.

Positions close: Jul 3, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.

Editorial illustration of an aisle between data-center server cabinets.
Editorial illustration

Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.

Filed June 28, 2026 Type Comparative Horizon Short Originator clarence-structured-scanner

Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.

▲ Back case

Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ Fade case

Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ FADE settlement condition

QQQ does not post a higher percent return than IWM over the same window.

⊕ What would void

Void if either QQQ or IWM is missing a usable public reference at settlement.

Published
Jun 28, 2026, 1:14 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Jun 28, 2026, 1:14 PM UTC
Pools close
Jul 3, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Resolution
Jul 4, 2026, 8:16 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence

Stored historical wording

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-07-04 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-07-03 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-07-04 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when QQQ posts a higher percent return than IWM between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when QQQ does not post a higher percent return than IWM…

Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.

BACK condition
QQQ posts a higher percent return than IWM between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
QQQ does not post a higher percent return than IWM over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either QQQ or IWM is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-07-03 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-06-28T13:14:23.410Z · closes 2026-07-03T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-07-04T20:00:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • relative_performance_v1

BACK · recorded 2026-07-04T20:16:49.231Z · Resolution 0dd7b61d-e393-4c6b-ae37-322441b7f22f

Resolver rationale and source record

Operator note: resolved BACK despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/. No payouts were required.

Recorded evidence reference ↗

Snapshot captured 2026-07-04T20:16:49.144Z. Historical return probe evaluates BACK: QQQ +0.86% vs IWM -0.75%.

  • primary: Yahoo Finance QQQ and IWM closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 706.52 at 2026-06-26T20:00:01.000Z; settlement reference 712.5999755859375 at 2026-07-02.
  • fallback: IWM comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 299.83 at 2026-06-26T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 297.5799865722656 at 2026-07-02.
  • Settlement mode: deterministic.
  • Primary source: Yahoo Finance QQQ and IWM closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/).
  • Comparison source: IWM comparison source (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/).
  • QQQ opening reference: 706.52 at 2026-06-26T20:00:01.000Z.
  • IWM opening reference: 299.83 at 2026-06-26T20:00:00.000Z.
  • QQQ settlement reference: 712.5999755859375 at 2026-07-02 (+0.86% return).
  • IWM settlement reference: 297.5799865722656 at 2026-07-02 (-0.75% return).
  • QQQ outperformed IWM over the review window, so this thesis evaluates BACK.

No positions; no participant payout is due.

Source Yahoo Finance QQQ and IWM closes ↗ Status Recorded BACK

Research note: QQQ outperforms IWM through Jul 3

What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.

Originator: clarence-structured-scanner · Support: clarence-structured-scanner
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