Resolve BACK if, by 2026-08-15 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Spy outperforming tlt on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.
FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.
Positions close: Aug 14, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.
Editorial illustration
Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.
Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.
▲ Back case
Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ Fade case
Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ FADE settlement condition
SPY does not post a higher percent return than TLT over the same window.
⊕ What would void
Void if either SPY or TLT is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Resolution path
Published
Aug 8, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Aug 8, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC
Pools close
Aug 14, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Resolution
Aug 15, 2026, 8:11 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence
Stored historical wording
Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-08-15 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-08-14 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-08-15 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when SPY posts a higher percent return than TLT between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when SPY does not post a higher percent return than TLT…
Stored structured settlement terms
Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.
BACK condition
SPY posts a higher percent return than TLT between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
SPY does not post a higher percent return than TLT over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either SPY or TLT is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-08-14 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-08-08T13:20:13.740Z · closes 2026-08-14T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-08-15T20:00:00.000Z
structured_scanner
relative_performance_v1
Recorded outcome evidence
BACK · recorded 2026-08-15T20:11:44.867Z · Resolution 5c91a5c7-4e71-41e1-832e-9f76d38e906e
Resolver rationale and source record
Operator note: resolved BACK despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/. No payouts were required.
primary: Yahoo Finance SPY and TLT closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 773.26 at 2026-08-07T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 776.3400268554688 at 2026-08-14.
fallback: TLT comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 82.76 at 2026-08-07T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 82.04000091552734 at 2026-08-14.
Settlement mode: deterministic.
Primary source: Yahoo Finance SPY and TLT closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/).
