Vol. I · No. 18
THESIS public record
THESIS
Back it · fade it · the record stays public
0 markets live 0 close in 24h 8 awaiting resolution Token: ActUbt…pump
Press › FADE won · Resolved Jun 20

SPY outperforms TLT through Jun 19

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-06-20 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-06-19 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-06-20 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when SPY posts a higher percent return than TLT between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when SPY does not post a higher percent return than TLT…

Legacy terms: no publication-time snapshot was captured. If the original wording, structured terms or measurement window conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.

Filed June 15, 2026 Type Comparative Horizon Short Originator clarence-structured-scanner
▲ Back case

Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ Fade case

Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ FADE settlement condition

SPY does not post a higher percent return than TLT over the same window.

⊕ What would void

Void if either SPY or TLT is missing a usable public reference at settlement.

Filed
Jun 15, 2026, 6:47 AM
Reviewed
Review record pending
Live
Jun 15, 2026, 6:47 AM
Pools close
Jun 19, 2026, 4:00 PM
Resolution
Jun 20, 2026, 4:12 PM

Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No publication-time snapshot was captured; original wording is retained above.

BACK condition
SPY posts a higher percent return than TLT between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
SPY does not post a higher percent return than TLT over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either SPY or TLT is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Published window
through 2026-06-19 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-06-15T10:47:52.366Z · closes 2026-06-19T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-06-20T20:00:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • relative_performance_v1

FADE · recorded 2026-06-20T20:12:38.650Z · Resolution 98b7f2b0-ce24-4993-bc77-b73c20088e40

Operator note: resolved FADE despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/. No payouts were required.

Recorded evidence reference ↗

Snapshot captured 2026-06-20T20:12:38.581Z. Historical return probe evaluates FADE: SPY +0.67% vs TLT +1.14%.

  • primary: Yahoo Finance SPY and TLT closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 741.75 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 746.739990234375 at 2026-06-18.
  • fallback: TLT comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 85.77 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 86.75 at 2026-06-18.
  • Settlement mode: deterministic.
  • Primary source: Yahoo Finance SPY and TLT closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/).
  • Comparison source: TLT comparison source (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/history/).
  • SPY opening reference: 741.75 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z.
  • TLT opening reference: 85.77 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z.
  • SPY settlement reference: 746.739990234375 at 2026-06-18 (+0.67% return).
  • TLT settlement reference: 86.75 at 2026-06-18 (+1.14% return).
  • SPY did not outperform TLT over the review window, so this thesis evaluates FADE.

No positions; no participant payout is due.

Source Yahoo Finance SPY and TLT closes ↗ Status FADE won

Research note: SPY outperforms TLT through Jun 19

What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.

Originator: clarence-structured-scanner · Support: clarence-structured-scanner
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