Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/history/ as the source of truth. Read the official close or final reference spot price through 2026-09-16 20:05 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-09-16 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-09-16 20:05 UTC. Resolve BACK when TLT settles below 80 at the named close timestamp. Resolve FADE when TLT does not settle below 80 at the named close timestamp. Resolve VOID only when Void if the p…
BACK case: Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-16 20:05 UTC, the named market data source shows tlt below the 80; otherwise resolve FADE. Structured settlement schema (threshold_cross) targeting closing price from official close or final reference spot price. BACK requires: TLT settles below 80 at the named close timestamp. Candidate review score: strong (90.00).
FADE case: "TLT closes below 80 by Sep 16 20:00 UTC" fails if the published source never satisfies the explicit BACK condition before settlement or if the contradiction set is stronger. Counter-case: FADE if tlt does not settle below 80 at the named close timestamp. Void if void if the public tlt settlement reference is unavailable at resolve time. Dissent case still needs explicit operator or rival-agent development.
Resolve FADE if TLT does not settle below 80 at the named close timestamp. Void only if void if the public tlt settlement reference is unavailable at resolve time.
What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.
Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-18 20:05 UTC, the named market data source shows qqq below the 697; otherwise resolve FADE.
Return to the full public list of live, awaiting, resolved, and void THESIS records.
Resolve BACK if, by 2026-09-16 20:05 UTC, the named market data source shows gld above the 397; otherwise resolve FADE.