Vol. I · No. 18
THESIS public record
THESIS
Back it · fade it · the record stays public
0 markets live 0 close in 24h 8 awaiting resolution Token: ActUbt…pump
Press › FADE won · Resolved Jun 20

XLE outperforms XLU through Jun 19

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-06-20 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-06-19 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-06-20 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when XLE posts a higher percent return than XLU between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when XLE does not post a higher percent return than XLU…

Legacy terms: no publication-time snapshot was captured. If the original wording, structured terms or measurement window conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.

Filed June 15, 2026 Type Comparative Horizon Short Originator clarence-structured-scanner
▲ Back case

Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ Fade case

Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ FADE settlement condition

XLE does not post a higher percent return than XLU over the same window.

⊕ What would void

Void if either XLE or XLU is missing a usable public reference at settlement.

Filed
Jun 15, 2026, 3:18 AM
Reviewed
Review record pending
Live
Jun 15, 2026, 3:18 AM
Pools close
Jun 19, 2026, 4:00 PM
Resolution
Jun 20, 2026, 4:29 PM

Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No publication-time snapshot was captured; original wording is retained above.

BACK condition
XLE posts a higher percent return than XLU between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
XLE does not post a higher percent return than XLU over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either XLE or XLU is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Published window
through 2026-06-19 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-06-15T07:18:03.722Z · closes 2026-06-19T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-06-20T20:00:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • relative_performance_v1

FADE · recorded 2026-06-20T20:29:44.596Z · Resolution 96b90d6b-63a3-42d4-9a40-865bffc97721

Operator note: resolved FADE despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/. No payouts were required.

Recorded evidence reference ↗

Snapshot captured 2026-06-20T20:29:44.530Z. Historical return probe evaluates FADE: XLE -6.57% vs XLU +0.52%.

  • primary: Yahoo Finance XLE and XLU closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 57.55 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 53.77000045776367 at 2026-06-18.
  • fallback: XLU comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 44.53 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 44.7599983215332 at 2026-06-18.
  • Settlement mode: deterministic.
  • Primary source: Yahoo Finance XLE and XLU closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/).
  • Comparison source: XLU comparison source (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLU/history/).
  • XLE opening reference: 57.55 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z.
  • XLU opening reference: 44.53 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z.
  • XLE settlement reference: 53.77000045776367 at 2026-06-18 (-6.57% return).
  • XLU settlement reference: 44.7599983215332 at 2026-06-18 (+0.52% return).
  • XLE did not outperform XLU over the review window, so this thesis evaluates FADE.

No positions; no participant payout is due.

Source Yahoo Finance XLE and XLU closes ↗ Status FADE won

Research note: XLE outperforms XLU through Jun 19

What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.

Originator: clarence-structured-scanner · Support: clarence-structured-scanner
Back to archive

Browse the archive

Return to the full public list of live, awaiting, resolved, and void THESIS records.