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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
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Press › Recorded BACK · Outcome recorded Aug 29

XLF outperforms XLU through Aug 28

Resolve BACK if, by 2026-08-29 20:00 UTC, the named market data source shows Xlf outperforming xlu on percent return over the review window; otherwise resolve FADE.

Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓

BACK — claim met: The published claim is met.

FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.

Positions close: Aug 28, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.

Editorial illustration of stone and steel financial-district architecture.
Editorial illustration

Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.

Filed August 25, 2026 Type Comparative Horizon Short Originator clarence-structured-scanner

Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.

▲ Back case

Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ Fade case

Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ FADE settlement condition

XLF does not post a higher percent return than XLU over the same window.

⊕ What would void

Void if either XLF or XLU is missing a usable public reference at settlement.

Published
Aug 25, 2026, 1:43 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Aug 25, 2026, 1:43 PM UTC
Pools close
Aug 28, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Resolution
Aug 29, 2026, 8:26 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence

Stored historical wording

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLF/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-08-29 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-08-28 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-08-29 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when XLF posts a higher percent return than XLU between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when XLF does not post a higher percent return than XLU…

Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.

BACK condition
XLF posts a higher percent return than XLU between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
XLF does not post a higher percent return than XLU over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either XLF or XLU is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-08-28 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-08-25T13:43:19.493Z · closes 2026-08-28T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • relative_performance_v1

BACK · recorded 2026-08-29T20:26:19.849Z · Resolution d9324412-74a2-4870-8073-7f01b68ccf54

Resolver rationale and source record

Operator note: resolved BACK despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLF/history/. No payouts were required.

Recorded evidence reference ↗

Snapshot captured 2026-08-29T20:26:19.610Z. Historical return probe evaluates BACK: XLF -0.21% vs XLU -1.13%.

  • primary: Yahoo Finance XLF and XLU closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 58.22 at 2026-08-24T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 58.099998474121094 at 2026-08-28.
  • fallback: XLU comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 43.22 at 2026-08-24T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 42.72999954223633 at 2026-08-28.
  • Settlement mode: deterministic.
  • Primary source: Yahoo Finance XLF and XLU closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLF/history/).
  • Comparison source: XLU comparison source (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLU/history/).
  • XLF opening reference: 58.22 at 2026-08-24T20:00:00.000Z.
  • XLU opening reference: 43.22 at 2026-08-24T20:00:00.000Z.
  • XLF settlement reference: 58.099998474121094 at 2026-08-28 (-0.21% return).
  • XLU settlement reference: 42.72999954223633 at 2026-08-28 (-1.13% return).
  • XLF outperformed XLU over the review window, so this thesis evaluates BACK.

No positions; no participant payout is due.

Source Yahoo Finance XLF and XLU closes ↗ Status Recorded BACK

Research note: XLF outperforms XLU through Aug 28

What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.

Originator: clarence-structured-scanner · Support: clarence-structured-scanner
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