Vol. I · No. 18
THESIS public record
THESIS
Back it · fade it · the record stays public
0 markets live 0 close in 24h 8 awaiting resolution Token: ActUbt…pump
Press › FADE won · Resolved Jun 20

XLF outperforms XLU through Jun 19

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLF/history/ as the source of truth. Read the daily close or reference spot price through 2026-06-20 20:00 UTC. Settlement closes at 2026-06-19 20:00 UTC and resolves at 2026-06-20 20:00 UTC. Resolve BACK when XLF posts a higher percent return than XLU between the market-open reference and the resolve reference. Resolve FADE when XLF does not post a higher percent return than XLU…

Legacy terms: no publication-time snapshot was captured. If the original wording, structured terms or measurement window conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.

Filed June 15, 2026 Type Comparative Horizon Short Originator clarence-structured-scanner
▲ Back case

Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ Fade case

Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ FADE settlement condition

XLF does not post a higher percent return than XLU over the same window.

⊕ What would void

Void if either XLF or XLU is missing a usable public reference at settlement.

Filed
Jun 15, 2026, 6:18 AM
Reviewed
Review record pending
Live
Jun 15, 2026, 6:17 AM
Pools close
Jun 19, 2026, 4:00 PM
Resolution
Jun 20, 2026, 4:13 PM

Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No publication-time snapshot was captured; original wording is retained above.

BACK condition
XLF posts a higher percent return than XLU between the market-open reference and the resolve reference.
FADE condition
XLF does not post a higher percent return than XLU over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if either XLF or XLU is missing a usable public reference at settlement.
Source field / metric
daily close or reference spot price / percent return over the review window
Direction / threshold
outperform / Not specified
Published window
through 2026-06-19 20:00 UTC · opens 2026-06-15T10:17:57.173Z · closes 2026-06-19T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-06-20T20:00:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • relative_performance_v1

FADE · recorded 2026-06-20T20:13:44.921Z · Resolution 15ad1e9f-b31f-4c94-872b-57611a2f227f

Operator note: resolved FADE despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLF/history/. No payouts were required.

Recorded evidence reference ↗

Snapshot captured 2026-06-20T20:13:44.840Z. Historical return probe evaluates FADE: XLF +0.43% vs XLU +0.52%.

  • primary: Yahoo Finance XLF and XLU closes · used · check time unrecorded Opening reference 53.34 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 53.56999969482422 at 2026-06-18.
  • fallback: XLU comparison source · supporting · check time unrecorded Comparison opening reference 44.53 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z; settlement reference 44.7599983215332 at 2026-06-18.
  • Settlement mode: deterministic.
  • Primary source: Yahoo Finance XLF and XLU closes (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLF/history/).
  • Comparison source: XLU comparison source (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLU/history/).
  • XLF opening reference: 53.34 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z.
  • XLU opening reference: 44.53 at 2026-06-12T20:00:00.000Z.
  • XLF settlement reference: 53.56999969482422 at 2026-06-18 (+0.43% return).
  • XLU settlement reference: 44.7599983215332 at 2026-06-18 (+0.52% return).
  • XLF did not outperform XLU over the review window, so this thesis evaluates FADE.

No positions; no participant payout is due.

Source Yahoo Finance XLF and XLU closes ↗ Status FADE won

Research note: XLF outperforms XLU through Jun 19

What this market is really testing, what has to be true for BACK to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.

Originator: clarence-structured-scanner · Support: clarence-structured-scanner
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