The market is still underpricing renewed Middle East escalation, and that complacency will be visible if Brent crude stays materially elevated while US equities fail to hold even a shallow rebound through the resolution window.
FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.
Positions close: Apr 25, 2026, 9:48 PM UTC
No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.
Editorial illustration
Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.
Filed April 19, 2026Type DirectionalHorizon ShortOriginator@stelliedan
The two cases
Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.
▲ Back case
Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ Fade case
Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ FADE settlement condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the primary source and SPY as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt and S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0 while SPY closes at or below 0.98 × S0. Resolve FADE if Brent closes at or below 1.03 × B0 while SPY closes at or above 1.01 × S0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data. If opensAt or resolvesAt falls on a non-trading day, use the daily close from the most recent prior US trading day, applied identically to both BZ=F and SPY.
⊕ What would void
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the primary source and SPY as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt and S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0 while SPY closes at or below 0.98 × S0. Resolve FADE if Brent closes at or below 1.03 × B0 while SPY closes at or above 1.01 × S0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data. If opensAt or resolvesAt falls on a non-trading day, use the daily close from the most recent prior US trading day, applied identically to both BZ=F and SPY.
Resolution path
Published
Apr 19, 2026, 7:19 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Apr 18, 2026, 9:48 PM UTC
Pools close
Apr 25, 2026, 9:48 PM UTC
Resolution
May 3, 2026, 11:51 AM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence
Stored historical wording
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the primary source and SPY as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt and S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0 while SPY closes at or below 0.98 × S0. Resolve FADE if Brent closes at or below 1.03 × B0 while SPY closes at or above 1.01 × S0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data. If opensAt or resolvesAt falls on a non-trading day, use the daily close from the most recent prior US trading day, applied identically to both BZ=F and SPY.
Stored structured settlement terms
Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.
BACK condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the primary source and SPY as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt and S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0 while SPY closes at or below 0.98 × S0. Resolve FADE if Brent closes at or below 1.03 × B0 while SPY closes at or above 1.01 × S0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data. If opensAt or resolvesAt falls on a non-trading day, use the daily close from the most recent prior US trading day, applied identically to both BZ=F and SPY.
FADE condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the primary source and SPY as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt and S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0 while SPY closes at or below 0.98 × S0. Resolve FADE if Brent closes at or below 1.03 × B0 while SPY closes at or above 1.01 × S0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data. If opensAt or resolvesAt falls on a non-trading day, use the daily close from the most recent prior US trading day, applied identically to both BZ=F and SPY.
VOID condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the primary source and SPY as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt and S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0 while SPY closes at or below 0.98 × S0. Resolve FADE if Brent closes at or below 1.03 × B0 while SPY closes at or above 1.01 × S0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data. If opensAt or resolvesAt falls on a non-trading day, use the daily close from the most recent prior US trading day, applied identically to both BZ=F and SPY.
Source field / metric
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the primary source and SPY as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt and S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0 while SPY closes at or below 0.98 × S0. Resolve FADE if Brent closes at or below 1.03 × B0 while SPY closes at or above 1.01 × S0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data. If opensAt or resolvesAt falls on a non-trading day, use the daily close from the most recent prior US trading day, applied identically to both BZ=F and SPY. / published multi-input market rule
Direction / threshold
Not specified / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-05-02 21:48 UTC · opens 2026-04-18T21:48:18.765Z · closes 2026-04-25T21:48:18.765Z · administrative resolve 2026-05-02T21:48:18.765Z
backfilled_from_published_thesis
custom_rule_from_published_text
Recorded outcome evidence
VOID · recorded 2026-05-03T11:51:37.094Z · Resolution d09789e1-9d6c-4184-bf6c-7f18f3da175c
Resolver rationale and source record
Auto-prepared resolution review from the THESIS tracker. Suggested result: VOID. Tracker as of 2026-05-01 22:00:00. Brent crude 108.17; BACK ≥ 94.9 (Met now); FADE ≤ 93.09 (Needs -13.9%) | SPY 720.65; BACK ≤ 695.94 (Needs -3.4%); FADE ≥ 717.24 (Met now) Canonical source for confirmation: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF/history/. Confirm against the published rule before submitting final resolution or payout.
No immutable observation snapshot is attached to this legacy outcome. Its verdict is recorded, but the underlying observation cannot be verified from this receipt alone.
Internal account credits completed in batch 9a4c74cb-0d28-492a-99e3-06ea10ce3dbc at 2026-05-03T11:51:37.234Z; 100 THESIS credited, 0 THESIS fees. This is not an on-chain withdrawal.
