The April 2026 rebound in US equities is still being sustained by narrative persistence rather than a full repricing of renewed Israel-Iran risk, even with Brent crude elevated above its opening level.
FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.
Positions close: Apr 24, 2026, 2:11 AM UTC
No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.
Editorial illustration
Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.
Filed April 19, 2026Type DirectionalHorizon ShortOriginator@stelliedan
The two cases
Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.
▲ Back case
Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ Fade case
Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ FADE settlement condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for SPY as the primary source and Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the required cross-check. Define S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt and B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if SPY closes at or above 0.98 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve FADE if SPY closes at or below 0.95 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data.
⊕ What would void
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for SPY as the primary source and Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the required cross-check. Define S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt and B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if SPY closes at or above 0.98 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve FADE if SPY closes at or below 0.95 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data.
Resolution path
Published
Apr 19, 2026, 7:19 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Apr 19, 2026, 2:11 AM UTC
Pools close
Apr 24, 2026, 2:11 AM UTC
Resolution
Apr 29, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence
Stored historical wording
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for SPY as the primary source and Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the required cross-check. Define S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt and B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if SPY closes at or above 0.98 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve FADE if SPY closes at or below 0.95 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data.
Stored structured settlement terms
Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.
BACK condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for SPY as the primary source and Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the required cross-check. Define S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt and B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if SPY closes at or above 0.98 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve FADE if SPY closes at or below 0.95 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data.
FADE condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for SPY as the primary source and Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the required cross-check. Define S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt and B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if SPY closes at or above 0.98 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve FADE if SPY closes at or below 0.95 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data.
VOID condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for SPY as the primary source and Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the required cross-check. Define S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt and B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if SPY closes at or above 0.98 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve FADE if SPY closes at or below 0.95 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data.
Source field / metric
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for SPY as the primary source and Brent crude futures (BZ=F) as the required cross-check. Define S0 as the SPY daily close on opensAt and B0 as the Brent daily close on opensAt. On resolvesAt, resolve BACK if SPY closes at or above 0.98 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve FADE if SPY closes at or below 0.95 × S0 and Brent closes at or above 1.05 × B0. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes, including mixed signals or unavailable data. / published multi-input market rule
Direction / threshold
Not specified / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-04-29 02:11 UTC · opens 2026-04-19T02:11:11.110Z · closes 2026-04-24T02:11:11.110Z · administrative resolve 2026-04-29T02:11:11.110Z
backfilled_from_published_thesis
custom_rule_from_published_text
Recorded outcome evidence
BACK · recorded 2026-04-29T17:42:37.644Z · Resolution ba2a26e7-1e46-4612-8435-4957d44a7c14
Resolver rationale and source record
Confirmed BACK resolution from Yahoo Finance SPY history with Brent crude (BZ=F) cross-check per canonical rule.
No immutable observation snapshot is attached to this legacy outcome. Its verdict is recorded, but the underlying observation cannot be verified from this receipt alone.
Internal account credits completed in batch eacfd223-14f7-4a9b-9195-8ed5de58198a at 2026-04-29T17:42:43.181Z; 100 THESIS credited, 0 THESIS fees. This is not an on-chain withdrawal.
