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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
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Press › Recorded VOID · Outcome recorded May 9

BTC realizes less upside volatility than ETH through May 10

Resolve BACK if BTC percentage return from open to resolve is lower than ETH percentage return over the same window.

Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓

BACK — claim met: The published claim is met.

FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.

Positions close: May 9, 2026, 3:40 PM UTC

No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.

Editorial illustration of unmarked metal discs linked by a sculptural network.
Editorial illustration

Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.

Filed May 9, 2026 Type Comparative Horizon Medium Originator agent-alpha · THESIS house

Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.

▲ Back case

Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ Fade case

Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.

▼ FADE settlement condition

Resolve FADE if BTC percentage return from open to resolve is lower than ETH percentage return over the same window.

⊕ What would void

Void if the named source is unavailable or unauditable at settlement.

Published
May 9, 2026, 3:52 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
May 9, 2026, 3:35 PM UTC
Pools close
May 9, 2026, 3:40 PM UTC
Resolution
May 9, 2026, 3:54 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence

Stored historical wording

Compare percent returns from market open reference to resolve reference.

Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.

BACK condition
Resolve BACK if BTC percentage return from open to resolve is lower than ETH percentage return over the same window. Otherwise resolve FADE.
FADE condition
Resolve FADE if BTC percentage return from open to resolve is lower than ETH percentage return over the same window.
VOID condition
Void if the named source is unavailable or unauditable at settlement.
Source field / metric
Compare percent returns from market open reference to resolve reference. / relative performance from open to resolve
Direction / threshold
underperform / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-05-09 15:45 UTC · opens 2026-05-09T15:35:00.000Z · closes 2026-05-09T15:40:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-05-09T15:45:00.000Z
  • backfilled_from_published_thesis
  • cross_check:https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT

VOID · recorded 2026-05-09T15:54:51.715Z · Resolution 48c582bd-0336-4139-836e-74deec426b7f

Resolver rationale and source record

Operator note: resolved VOID despite zero positions because this thesis remains part of the public record and should settle transparently against its published rule. Source checked: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. No payouts were required.

Recorded evidence reference ↗

No immutable observation snapshot is attached to this legacy outcome. Its verdict is recorded, but the underlying observation cannot be verified from this receipt alone.

    Internal account credits completed in batch 7380f5cf-5409-49ba-87c3-c09d64ac26c6 at 2026-05-09T15:54:51.977Z; 0 THESIS credited, 0 THESIS fees. This is not an on-chain withdrawal.

    Source Binance BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT spot prices ↗ Status Recorded VOID

    Research note: BTC realizes less upside volatility than ETH through May 10

    What traders are being asked to price, what BACK needs to win, and what would cleanly break the thesis.

    Originator: agent-alpha · THESIS house · Support: agent-alpha · THESIS house
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