If risk appetite stays selective, QQQ should hold relative leadership over IWM through the next resolution window rather than handing the tape to small-cap cyclicals.
FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.
Positions close: May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.
Editorial illustration
Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.
Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.
▲ Back case
Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ Fade case
Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ FADE settlement condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/ as the required cross-check. Define Q0 as the QQQ daily close and I0 as the IWM daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define Q1 and I1 the same way on resolvesAt. Define R0 = Q0 / I0 and R1 = Q1 / I1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or above 1.015 × R0, showing that mega-cap tech kept relative leadership over small-cap cyclicals. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or below 0.985 × R0, showing that the reopening/breadth trade overtook mega-cap defense. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
⊕ What would void
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/ as the required cross-check. Define Q0 as the QQQ daily close and I0 as the IWM daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define Q1 and I1 the same way on resolvesAt. Define R0 = Q0 / I0 and R1 = Q1 / I1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or above 1.015 × R0, showing that mega-cap tech kept relative leadership over small-cap cyclicals. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or below 0.985 × R0, showing that the reopening/breadth trade overtook mega-cap defense. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
Resolution path
Published
Apr 26, 2026, 12:18 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Apr 26, 2026, 12:18 PM UTC
Pools close
May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Resolution
May 4, 2026, 10:32 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence
Stored historical wording
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/ as the required cross-check. Define Q0 as the QQQ daily close and I0 as the IWM daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define Q1 and I1 the same way on resolvesAt. Define R0 = Q0 / I0 and R1 = Q1 / I1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or above 1.015 × R0, showing that mega-cap tech kept relative leadership over small-cap cyclicals. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or below 0.985 × R0, showing that the reopening/breadth trade overtook mega-cap defense. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
Stored structured settlement terms
Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.
BACK condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/ as the required cross-check. Define Q0 as the QQQ daily close and I0 as the IWM daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define Q1 and I1 the same way on resolvesAt. Define R0 = Q0 / I0 and R1 = Q1 / I1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or above 1.015 × R0, showing that mega-cap tech kept relative leadership over small-cap cyclicals. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or below 0.985 × R0, showing that the reopening/breadth trade overtook mega-cap defense. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
FADE condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/ as the required cross-check. Define Q0 as the QQQ daily close and I0 as the IWM daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define Q1 and I1 the same way on resolvesAt. Define R0 = Q0 / I0 and R1 = Q1 / I1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or above 1.015 × R0, showing that mega-cap tech kept relative leadership over small-cap cyclicals. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or below 0.985 × R0, showing that the reopening/breadth trade overtook mega-cap defense. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
VOID condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/ as the required cross-check. Define Q0 as the QQQ daily close and I0 as the IWM daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define Q1 and I1 the same way on resolvesAt. Define R0 = Q0 / I0 and R1 = Q1 / I1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or above 1.015 × R0, showing that mega-cap tech kept relative leadership over small-cap cyclicals. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or below 0.985 × R0, showing that the reopening/breadth trade overtook mega-cap defense. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
Source field / metric
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/ as the required cross-check. Define Q0 as the QQQ daily close and I0 as the IWM daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define Q1 and I1 the same way on resolvesAt. Define R0 = Q0 / I0 and R1 = Q1 / I1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or above 1.015 × R0, showing that mega-cap tech kept relative leadership over small-cap cyclicals. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or below 0.985 × R0, showing that the reopening/breadth trade overtook mega-cap defense. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable. / published multi-input market rule
Direction / threshold
Not specified / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-05-04 22:30 UTC · opens 2026-04-26T12:18:56.705Z · closes 2026-05-03T21:00:16.374Z · administrative resolve 2026-05-04T22:30:16.374Z
No immutable observation snapshot is attached to this legacy outcome. Its verdict is recorded, but the underlying observation cannot be verified from this receipt alone.
Internal account credits completed in batch 483d0fab-30fb-4578-9d34-e6b33d8541b9 at 2026-05-04T22:32:56.331Z; 7450 THESIS credited, 0 THESIS fees. This is not an on-chain withdrawal.
