If the market is still rewarding the security narrative over higher-beta crypto exposure, Bitcoin should keep outperforming Ether without giving back its own price support through the resolution window.
FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.
Positions close: May 2, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.
Editorial illustration
Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.
Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.
▲ Back case
Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ Fade case
Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ FADE settlement condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for BTC-USD as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for ETH-USD at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/history/ as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the BTC-USD daily close and E0 as the ETH-USD daily close on opensAt, and define R0 = E0 / B0. Define B1 and E1 the same way on resolvesAt, and define R1 = E1 / B1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or below 0.95 × R0 and B1 is at or above 0.98 × B0, showing that Bitcoin kept relative leadership while holding its own price support. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or above 1.02 × R0, showing that Ether regained relative strength instead. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
⊕ What would void
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for BTC-USD as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for ETH-USD at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/history/ as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the BTC-USD daily close and E0 as the ETH-USD daily close on opensAt, and define R0 = E0 / B0. Define B1 and E1 the same way on resolvesAt, and define R1 = E1 / B1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or below 0.95 × R0 and B1 is at or above 0.98 × B0, showing that Bitcoin kept relative leadership while holding its own price support. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or above 1.02 × R0, showing that Ether regained relative strength instead. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
Resolution path
Published
Apr 25, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Apr 25, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Pools close
May 2, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC
Resolution
May 9, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence
Stored historical wording
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for BTC-USD as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for ETH-USD at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/history/ as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the BTC-USD daily close and E0 as the ETH-USD daily close on opensAt, and define R0 = E0 / B0. Define B1 and E1 the same way on resolvesAt, and define R1 = E1 / B1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or below 0.95 × R0 and B1 is at or above 0.98 × B0, showing that Bitcoin kept relative leadership while holding its own price support. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or above 1.02 × R0, showing that Ether regained relative strength instead. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
Stored structured settlement terms
Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.
BACK condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for BTC-USD as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for ETH-USD at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/history/ as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the BTC-USD daily close and E0 as the ETH-USD daily close on opensAt, and define R0 = E0 / B0. Define B1 and E1 the same way on resolvesAt, and define R1 = E1 / B1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or below 0.95 × R0 and B1 is at or above 0.98 × B0, showing that Bitcoin kept relative leadership while holding its own price support. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or above 1.02 × R0, showing that Ether regained relative strength instead. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
FADE condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for BTC-USD as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for ETH-USD at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/history/ as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the BTC-USD daily close and E0 as the ETH-USD daily close on opensAt, and define R0 = E0 / B0. Define B1 and E1 the same way on resolvesAt, and define R1 = E1 / B1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or below 0.95 × R0 and B1 is at or above 0.98 × B0, showing that Bitcoin kept relative leadership while holding its own price support. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or above 1.02 × R0, showing that Ether regained relative strength instead. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
VOID condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for BTC-USD as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for ETH-USD at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/history/ as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the BTC-USD daily close and E0 as the ETH-USD daily close on opensAt, and define R0 = E0 / B0. Define B1 and E1 the same way on resolvesAt, and define R1 = E1 / B1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or below 0.95 × R0 and B1 is at or above 0.98 × B0, showing that Bitcoin kept relative leadership while holding its own price support. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or above 1.02 × R0, showing that Ether regained relative strength instead. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
Source field / metric
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for BTC-USD as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for ETH-USD at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/history/ as the required cross-check. Define B0 as the BTC-USD daily close and E0 as the ETH-USD daily close on opensAt, and define R0 = E0 / B0. Define B1 and E1 the same way on resolvesAt, and define R1 = E1 / B1. Resolve BACK if R1 is at or below 0.95 × R0 and B1 is at or above 0.98 × B0, showing that Bitcoin kept relative leadership while holding its own price support. Resolve FADE if R1 is at or above 1.02 × R0, showing that Ether regained relative strength instead. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable. / published multi-input market rule
Direction / threshold
Not specified / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-05-09 12:44 UTC · opens 2026-04-25T12:44:18.937Z · closes 2026-05-02T12:44:18.937Z · administrative resolve 2026-05-09T12:44:18.937Z
BACK · recorded 2026-05-09T13:12:39.643Z · Resolution 12ca91d1-9344-4798-95de-1fb7dc4f7cc2
Resolver rationale and source record
Auto-prepared resolution review from the THESIS tracker. Suggested result: BACK. Tracker as of 2026-05-09 00:00:00 UTC. Bitcoin 80,373.66; BACK ≥ 74,355.07 (Met now); FADE n/a | ETH/BTC ratio 0.0288; BACK ≤ 0.029 (Met now); FADE ≥ 0.0311 (Needs +8.1%) Canonical source for confirmation: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/. Confirm against the published rule before submitting final resolution or payout.
No immutable observation snapshot is attached to this legacy outcome. Its verdict is recorded, but the underlying observation cannot be verified from this receipt alone.
Internal account credits completed in batch 05f1e38f-22cc-4652-b035-b63b8b84192b at 2026-05-09T13:12:39.846Z; 2000 THESIS credited, 0 THESIS fees. This is not an on-chain withdrawal.
