If ICP loses price support while CoinGecko-reported daily turnover contracts sharply, that will be the operating sign that the tokenization narrative is no longer recruiting enough fresh demand.
FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.
Positions close: Apr 25, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC
No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.
Editorial illustration
Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.
Filed April 24, 2026Type DirectionalHorizon ShortOriginator@stelliedan
The two cases
Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.
▲ Back case
Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ Fade case
Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ FADE settlement condition
If ICP loses price support while CoinGecko-reported daily turnover contracts sharply, that will be the operating sign that the tokenization narrative is no longer recruiting enough fresh demand.
⊕ What would void
Use CoinGecko's fixed range endpoint at https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/internet-computer/market_chart/range?vs_currency=usd&from=1776384000&to=1777679999&interval=daily as the named public source. In the returned JSON, use the `prices` array and the `total_volumes` array for UTC-daily entries across the fixed window. Define P0 as the USD price entry for 2026-04-17 UTC and V0 as the total_volumes entry for 2026-04-17 UTC. Define P1 and V1 the same way for 2026-05-01 UTC. Resolve BACK if P1 is at or below 0.90 × P0 and V1 is at or below 0.70 × V0, showing that price support and turnover both broke together. Resolve FADE if P1 is at or above 1.00 × P0 or V1 is at or above 0.90 × V0, showing that the narrative did not lose enough turnover to count as broken. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if the source is unavailable.
Resolution path
Published
Apr 24, 2026, 4:31 PM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Apr 24, 2026, 4:42 PM UTC
Pools close
Apr 25, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC
Resolution
May 3, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence
Stored historical wording
Use CoinGecko's fixed range endpoint at https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/internet-computer/market_chart/range?vs_currency=usd&from=1776384000&to=1777679999&interval=daily as the named public source. In the returned JSON, use the `prices` array and the `total_volumes` array for UTC-daily entries across the fixed window. Define P0 as the USD price entry for 2026-04-17 UTC and V0 as the total_volumes entry for 2026-04-17 UTC. Define P1 and V1 the same way for 2026-05-01 UTC. Resolve BACK if P1 is at or below 0.90 × P0 and V1 is at or below 0.70 × V0, showing that price support and turnover both broke together. Resolve FADE if P1 is at or above 1.00 × P0 or V1 is at or above 0.90 × V0, showing that the narrative did not lose enough turnover to count as broken. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if the source is unavailable.
Stored structured settlement terms
Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.
BACK condition
Use CoinGecko's fixed range endpoint at https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/internet-computer/market_chart/range?vs_currency=usd&from=1776384000&to=1777679999&interval=daily as the named public source. In the returned JSON, use the `prices` array and the `total_volumes` array for UTC-daily entries across the fixed window. Define P0 as the USD price entry for 2026-04-17 UTC and V0 as the total_volumes entry for 2026-04-17 UTC. Define P1 and V1 the same way for 2026-05-01 UTC. Resolve BACK if P1 is at or below 0.90 × P0 and V1 is at or below 0.70 × V0, showing that price support and turnover both broke together. Resolve FADE if P1 is at or above 1.00 × P0 or V1 is at or above 0.90 × V0, showing that the narrative did not lose enough turnover to count as broken. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if the source is unavailable.
FADE condition
If ICP loses price support while CoinGecko-reported daily turnover contracts sharply, that will be the operating sign that the tokenization narrative is no longer recruiting enough fresh demand.
VOID condition
Use CoinGecko's fixed range endpoint at https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/internet-computer/market_chart/range?vs_currency=usd&from=1776384000&to=1777679999&interval=daily as the named public source. In the returned JSON, use the `prices` array and the `total_volumes` array for UTC-daily entries across the fixed window. Define P0 as the USD price entry for 2026-04-17 UTC and V0 as the total_volumes entry for 2026-04-17 UTC. Define P1 and V1 the same way for 2026-05-01 UTC. Resolve BACK if P1 is at or below 0.90 × P0 and V1 is at or below 0.70 × V0, showing that price support and turnover both broke together. Resolve FADE if P1 is at or above 1.00 × P0 or V1 is at or above 0.90 × V0, showing that the narrative did not lose enough turnover to count as broken. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if the source is unavailable.
Source field / metric
Use CoinGecko's fixed range endpoint at https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/internet-computer/market_chart/range?vs_currency=usd&from=1776384000&to=1777679999&interval=daily as the named public source. In the returned JSON, use the `prices` array and the `total_volumes` array for UTC-daily entries across the fixed window. Define P0 as the USD price entry for 2026-04-17 UTC and V0 as the total_volumes entry for 2026-04-17 UTC. Define P1 and V1 the same way for 2026-05-01 UTC. Resolve BACK if P1 is at or below 0.90 × P0 and V1 is at or below 0.70 × V0, showing that price support and turnover both broke together. Resolve FADE if P1 is at or above 1.00 × P0 or V1 is at or above 0.90 × V0, showing that the narrative did not lose enough turnover to count as broken. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if the source is unavailable. / published CoinGecko range rule
Direction / threshold
Not specified / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-05-02 21:47 UTC · opens 2026-04-24T16:42:00.000Z · closes 2026-04-25T21:47:23.533Z · administrative resolve 2026-05-02T21:47:23.533Z
backfilled_from_published_thesis
custom_rule_from_published_text
Recorded outcome evidence
BACK · recorded 2026-05-03T11:50:18.876Z · Resolution 4d0daf06-d603-4966-83ef-aeb629397176
Resolver rationale and source record
Auto-prepared resolution review from the THESIS tracker. Suggested result: BACK. Tracker as of 2026-05-01 00:00:00 UTC. ICP price 2.3776; BACK ≤ 2.3914 (Met now); FADE ≥ 2.6571 (Needs +11.8%) | ICP turnover 22,671,674; BACK ≤ 40,889,714 (Met now); FADE ≥ 52,572,490 (Needs +131.9%) Canonical source for confirmation: https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/internet-computer/market_chart/range?vs_currency=usd&from=1776384000&to=1777679999&interval=daily. Confirm against the published rule before submitting final resolution or payout.
No immutable observation snapshot is attached to this legacy outcome. Its verdict is recorded, but the underlying observation cannot be verified from this receipt alone.
Internal account credits completed in batch 9cf81f5c-4790-4628-b1c7-976923d74fd1 at 2026-05-03T11:51:36.943Z; 350 THESIS credited, 0 THESIS fees. This is not an on-chain withdrawal.
