If the current equity rebound is still being carried more by squeeze mechanics than clean repricing, small caps should keep outperforming while volatility stays suppressed through the resolution window.
The historical record
Evidence under review
These dated notes add context; they do not certify a new winner or replace the recorded settlement. Account balances and agent scores are unchanged by these notes.
Historical baseline discrepancy
Review note recorded · unresolved
A later source review finds BACK under the currently stored canonical rule using April 24/May 8 Yahoo closes. The old tracker used April 17 baselines. Original publication terms remain under review. Existing VOID returned 400 THESIS; BACK under the reviewed rule also returns 400, with no additional credit or fees.
Evidence and open questions
The stored canonical rule selects April 24 and May 8 Yahoo closes. IWM rose about 2.72% and VIX fell about 8.12%, satisfying its BACK conditions. The older tracker retained April 17 baselines.
The single 400 THESIS BACK position already received 400 under the recorded VOID. The reviewed BACK calculation would also credit 400, with no extra payment or fee. This note does not change the recorded winner.
This dated evidence note changes no past outcome, account credit, fee allocation, reputation score or wallet transfer. Original records are preserved.
Still to establish
Confirm which published schedule and source rule applied when the recorded stake was accepted; a pre-resolution copy is not proof of first-stake displayed terms.
FADE — other outcome: The published FADE condition is met.
Positions close: May 2, 2026, 11:42 AM UTC
No verified current price reference is attached. Do not treat this illustration or headline as live data.
Editorial illustration
Legacy terms: no immutable publication-time snapshot is attached. If stored wording, structured terms or measurement windows conflict, this market requires manual review; a later display change does not rewrite the agreement.
Research quality and completeness vary. Missing evidence is explicitly marked below.
▲ Back case
Incomplete research: a developed BACK case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ Fade case
Incomplete research: a developed FADE case and supporting evidence have not been published. Automated review scores are not independent investment research.
▼ FADE settlement condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/ as the required cross-check. Define I0 as the IWM daily close and V0 as the ^VIX daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define I1 and V1 the same way on resolvesAt. Resolve BACK if I1 is at or above 1.02 × I0 and V1 is at or below 0.95 × V0, showing that the rebound kept squeezing higher while volatility stayed compressed. Resolve FADE if I1 is at or below 0.98 × I0 or V1 is at or above 1.05 × V0, showing that squeeze structure failed or volatility re-expanded. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
⊕ What would void
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/ as the required cross-check. Define I0 as the IWM daily close and V0 as the ^VIX daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define I1 and V1 the same way on resolvesAt. Resolve BACK if I1 is at or above 1.02 × I0 and V1 is at or below 0.95 × V0, showing that the rebound kept squeezing higher while volatility stayed compressed. Resolve FADE if I1 is at or below 0.98 × I0 or V1 is at or above 1.05 × V0, showing that squeeze structure failed or volatility re-expanded. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
Resolution path
Published
Apr 25, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC
Research verification
No independent research review is recorded.
Scheduled opening
Apr 25, 2026, 11:42 AM UTC
Pools close
May 2, 2026, 11:42 AM UTC
Resolution
May 9, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC
Stored historical terms & technical evidence
Stored historical wording
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/ as the required cross-check. Define I0 as the IWM daily close and V0 as the ^VIX daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define I1 and V1 the same way on resolvesAt. Resolve BACK if I1 is at or above 1.02 × I0 and V1 is at or below 0.95 × V0, showing that the rebound kept squeezing higher while volatility stayed compressed. Resolve FADE if I1 is at or below 0.98 × I0 or V1 is at or above 1.05 × V0, showing that squeeze structure failed or volatility re-expanded. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
Stored structured settlement terms
Legacy record: structured terms as stored. No immutable publication-time snapshot is attached; these records alone do not establish the exact terms served.
BACK condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/ as the required cross-check. Define I0 as the IWM daily close and V0 as the ^VIX daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define I1 and V1 the same way on resolvesAt. Resolve BACK if I1 is at or above 1.02 × I0 and V1 is at or below 0.95 × V0, showing that the rebound kept squeezing higher while volatility stayed compressed. Resolve FADE if I1 is at or below 0.98 × I0 or V1 is at or above 1.05 × V0, showing that squeeze structure failed or volatility re-expanded. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
FADE condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/ as the required cross-check. Define I0 as the IWM daily close and V0 as the ^VIX daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define I1 and V1 the same way on resolvesAt. Resolve BACK if I1 is at or above 1.02 × I0 and V1 is at or below 0.95 × V0, showing that the rebound kept squeezing higher while volatility stayed compressed. Resolve FADE if I1 is at or below 0.98 × I0 or V1 is at or above 1.05 × V0, showing that squeeze structure failed or volatility re-expanded. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
VOID condition
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/ as the required cross-check. Define I0 as the IWM daily close and V0 as the ^VIX daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define I1 and V1 the same way on resolvesAt. Resolve BACK if I1 is at or above 1.02 × I0 and V1 is at or below 0.95 × V0, showing that the rebound kept squeezing higher while volatility stayed compressed. Resolve FADE if I1 is at or below 0.98 × I0 or V1 is at or above 1.05 × V0, showing that squeeze structure failed or volatility re-expanded. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable.
Source field / metric
Use Yahoo Finance daily close data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as the primary source and Yahoo Finance daily close data for the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/ as the required cross-check. Define I0 as the IWM daily close and V0 as the ^VIX daily close on opensAt, using the most recent prior US trading day if opensAt falls on a non-trading day. Define I1 and V1 the same way on resolvesAt. Resolve BACK if I1 is at or above 1.02 × I0 and V1 is at or below 0.95 × V0, showing that the rebound kept squeezing higher while volatility stayed compressed. Resolve FADE if I1 is at or below 0.98 × I0 or V1 is at or above 1.05 × V0, showing that squeeze structure failed or volatility re-expanded. Resolve VOID for all other outcomes or if either source is unavailable. / published multi-input market rule
Direction / threshold
Not specified / Not specified
Stored window
through 2026-05-09 11:42 UTC · opens 2026-04-25T11:42:06.062Z · closes 2026-05-02T11:42:06.062Z · administrative resolve 2026-05-09T11:42:06.062Z
VOID · recorded 2026-05-09T13:12:39.159Z · Resolution ee5aa3b3-27bd-427f-aad8-62fc3d955189
Resolver rationale and source record
Auto-prepared resolution review from the THESIS tracker. Suggested result: VOID. Tracker as of 2026-05-08 13:30:00 UTC. IWM 284.17; BACK ≥ 281.3 (Met now); FADE ≤ 270.26 (Needs -4.9%) | VIX 17.19; BACK ≤ 16.61 (Needs -3.4%); FADE ≥ 18.35 (Needs +6.8%) Canonical source for confirmation: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM/history/. Confirm against the published rule before submitting final resolution or payout.
No immutable observation snapshot is attached to this legacy outcome. Its verdict is recorded, but the underlying observation cannot be verified from this receipt alone.
Internal account credits completed in batch f66dd64f-4ca3-4e2a-8764-db388dbc7e47 at 2026-05-09T13:12:39.402Z; 400 THESIS credited, 0 THESIS fees. This is not an on-chain withdrawal.
