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THESIS
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Press › Closing · Closes Sep 28

Will SPY close above $779.06 on Monday, Sep 28, 2026?

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust — a fund tracking large US companies in the S&P 500.

Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓

BACK — claim met: SPY closes strictly above $779.06.

FADE — other outcome: SPY closes at or below $779.06, including equality.

Positions close: Sep 28, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

Verified research reference: $771.35 on Sep 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC. Threshold is 1.00% above that close.

This dated reference is not a live quote or the settlement price. Source [1] ↗

Editorial illustration of stone and steel financial-district architecture.
Editorial illustration
Filed September 28, 2026 Type Directional Horizon Short Originator thesis-structured-scanner

Automated quantitative context, verified against its saved source. Descriptive history, not a forecast or independent human research.

▲ Back case

BACK requires the eventual contractual close to be strictly above $779.0600. The trailing 20-session price change was +0.03%. The sign of the trailing price change is consistent with the direction BACK needs; continuation is not established. In the 21 observed historical closes, 0 were strictly above the proposed threshold. Those observations describe this historical window, not the chance of BACK winning. [1]

▼ Fade case

FADE wins if the contractual close is at or below $779.0600, including equality. Historical daily-return sample standard deviation was 0.68%; observed closes ranged from $754.0500 to $773.5000. Price changes can reverse, jump, or exceed that historical range. Trend continuation and this small historical sample do not establish a predictive edge for either side. [1]

▼ FADE settlement condition

SPY's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 779.06 USD at 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.

⊕ What would void

No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.

[1] Yahoo completed daily closes ↗ · Calculations, source receipt & limitations

Published
Sep 28, 2026, 12:05 PM UTC
Research verification
Automated source recomputation passed. Not independent human review.
Scheduled opening
Sep 28, 2026, 12:05 PM UTC
Pools close
Sep 28, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Resolution
Sep 28, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Frozen publication terms & technical evidence

Published wording

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/. Measure only the daily close (indicators.quote.close, not adjusted close) for the exact provider-confirmed session 2026-09-28T13:30:00.000Z to 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z, in USD. Resolve BACK when SPY's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly above 779.06 USD at 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC. Resolve FADE when SPY's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 779.06 USD at 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Administrative resolution starts 2026-09-28T20:30:00.000Z. No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price. Calendar us-equities-2025-2027-v1; an unexpected exchange closure requires review, not a shifted deadline.

Frozen publication terms match the validated contract; the stored wording is retained here.

Frozen publication terms and SHA-256
{
  "version": 1,
  "capturedAt": "2026-09-28T12:05:34.325Z",
  "sha256": "cc3c004e1846c79450832da723adc5e419c1d9a7d12c31e1d33e96a60edddf05",
  "terms": {
    "slug": "spy-closes-above-779-06-usd-on-2026-09-28",
    "title": "SPY closes above 779.06 USD on 2026-09-28",
    "statement": "SPY's Yahoo Finance USD daily closing price for the US equity session ending 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC is strictly above 779.06.",
    "falsifier": "Resolve FADE if SPY's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 779.06 USD at 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Missing evidence is pending, not FADE or automatic VOID.",
    "resolutionRule": "Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/. Measure only the daily close (indicators.quote.close, not adjusted close) for the exact provider-confirmed session 2026-09-28T13:30:00.000Z to 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z, in USD. Resolve BACK when SPY's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly above 779.06 USD at 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC. Resolve FADE when SPY's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 779.06 USD at 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Administrative resolution starts 2026-09-28T20:30:00.000Z. No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price. Calendar us-equities-2025-2027-v1; an unexpected exchange closure requires review, not a shifted deadline.",
    "settlementSchema": {
      "version": 2,
      "template": "threshold_cross",
      "sourceKind": "market_data",
      "sourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/",
      "sourceField": "Yahoo Finance daily closing price (indicators.quote.close, USD)",
      "subject": "SPY",
      "metric": "closing price",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": "779.06",
      "timeWindowLabel": "at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z",
      "openAt": "2026-09-28T12:05:05.173Z",
      "closeAt": "2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z",
      "resolveAt": "2026-09-28T20:30:00.000Z",
      "backCondition": "SPY's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly above 779.06 USD at 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC.",
      "fadeCondition": "SPY's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 779.06 USD at 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.",
      "voidCondition": "No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.",
      "deterministic": true,
      "notes": [
        "structured_scanner",
        "us_equity_close_threshold_v1"
      ]
    },
    "resolutionSourceName": "Yahoo Finance historical price data",
    "resolutionSourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/",
    "resolutionMode": "deterministic",
    "crossCheckSourceName": null,
    "crossCheckSourceUrl": null,
    "voidPolicy": null,
    "opensAt": "2026-09-28T12:05:05.173Z",
    "closesAt": "2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z",
    "resolvesAt": "2026-09-28T20:30:00.000Z",
    "marketTemplate": "threshold_cross",
    "openingReferences": {
      "snapshot": {
        "sourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/",
        "requestUrl": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/SPY?period1=1790193600&period2=1790683505&interval=1d&includePrePost=false&events=splits",
        "cutoff": "2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
        "capturedAt": "2026-09-28T12:05:05.173Z",
        "responseSha256": "152f5c4b2e26d58ccffeadbbc96221ee29fc981a4afd16b7071deec965e8880a",
        "currency": "USD",
        "instrumentType": "ETF",
        "symbol": "SPY",
        "value": 771.3499755859375,
        "barStartedAt": "2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z",
        "observedAt": "2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
        "exchangeTimezone": "America/New_York",
        "rawEvidence": {
          "timestamp": 1790343000,
          "close": 771.3499755859375,
          "session": {
            "start": 1790343000,
            "end": 1790366400
          },
          "meta": {
            "symbol": "SPY",
            "exchangeTimezoneName": "America/New_York",
            "currency": "USD",
            "instrumentType": "ETF"
          },
          "responseSha256": "152f5c4b2e26d58ccffeadbbc96221ee29fc981a4afd16b7071deec965e8880a",
          "calendar": {
            "requestUrl": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/SPY?period1=1790193600&period2=1790452800&interval=1h&includePrePost=false&events=splits",
            "responseSha256": "eb466ed3ab2b173bfed345e5be99bbd96b5faee9edd212596b16834b2048db5a"
          }
        },
        "price": 771.3499755859375,
        "asOf": "2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
        "label": "SPY",
        "sourceKind": "yahoo"
      },
      "leftSnapshot": null,
      "rightSnapshot": null,
      "automationContract": {
        "version": 1,
        "templateId": "yahoo_us_etf_close_threshold_v1",
        "calendarVersion": "us-equities-2025-2027-v1",
        "symbol": "SPY",
        "sessionDate": "2026-09-28",
        "sessionOpenAt": "2026-09-28T13:30:00.000Z",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z",
        "resolvesAt": "2026-09-28T20:30:00.000Z",
        "provider": "yahoo",
        "currency": "USD",
        "field": "daily_close",
        "threshold": 779.06,
        "direction": "above",
        "tieResult": "fade",
        "missingDataPolicy": "hold_for_verified_observation",
        "splitPolicy": "hold_for_review"
      }
    }
  }
}
BACK condition
SPY's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly above 779.06 USD at 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC.
FADE condition
SPY's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 779.06 USD at 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.
VOID condition
No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.
Source field / metric
Yahoo Finance daily closing price (indicators.quote.close, USD) / closing price
Direction / threshold
above / 779.06
Published window
at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z · opens 2026-09-28T12:05:05.173Z · closes 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-09-28T20:30:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • us_equity_close_threshold_v1

Quantitative research: SPY closes above 779.06 USD on 2026-09-28

Verified closing-price context, opposing cases, and explicit limits—not a forecast.

Originator: thesis-structured-scanner · Support: thesis-structured-scanner
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