Invesco QQQ Trust — a fund tracking the Nasdaq-100.
Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓
BACK — claim met: QQQ closes strictly below $733.69.
FADE — other outcome: QQQ closes at or above $733.69, including equality.
Positions close: Sep 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Verified research reference: $741.1 on Sep 24, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC. Threshold is 1.00% below that close.
This dated reference is not a live quote or the settlement price. Source [1] ↗
Automated quantitative context, verified against its saved source. Descriptive history, not a forecast or independent human research.
BACK requires the eventual contractual close to be strictly below $733.6900. The trailing 20-session price change was +4.18%. The trailing price change does not support the direction BACK needs; a reversal or different future path would be required. In the 21 observed historical closes, 17 were strictly below the proposed threshold. Those observations describe this historical window, not the chance of BACK winning. [1]
FADE wins if the contractual close is at or above $733.6900, including equality. Historical daily-return sample standard deviation was 1.03%; observed closes ranged from $704.5400 to $747.4600. Price changes can reverse, jump, or exceed that historical range. Trend continuation and this small historical sample do not establish a predictive edge for either side. [1]
QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 733.69 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.
No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.
[1] Yahoo completed daily closes ↗ · Calculations, source receipt & limitations
Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/. Measure only the daily close (indicators.quote.close, not adjusted close) for the exact provider-confirmed session 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z to 2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z, in USD. Resolve BACK when QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly below 733.69 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC. Resolve FADE when QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 733.69 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Administrative resolution starts 2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z. No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price. Calendar us-equities-2025-2027-v1; an unexpected exchange closure requires review, not a shifted deadline.
Frozen publication terms match the validated contract; the stored wording is retained here.
{
"version": 1,
"capturedAt": "2026-09-25T14:05:27.925Z",
"sha256": "33438898827b1847ecd4c8fcce9f87f4210da7251b63ecf6dac36e4a44353207",
"terms": {
"slug": "qqq-closes-below-733-69-usd-on-2026-09-25",
"title": "QQQ closes below 733.69 USD on 2026-09-25",
"statement": "QQQ's Yahoo Finance USD daily closing price for the US equity session ending 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC is strictly below 733.69.",
"falsifier": "Resolve FADE if QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 733.69 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Missing evidence is pending, not FADE or automatic VOID.",
"resolutionRule": "Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/. Measure only the daily close (indicators.quote.close, not adjusted close) for the exact provider-confirmed session 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z to 2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z, in USD. Resolve BACK when QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly below 733.69 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC. Resolve FADE when QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 733.69 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Administrative resolution starts 2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z. No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price. Calendar us-equities-2025-2027-v1; an unexpected exchange closure requires review, not a shifted deadline.",
"settlementSchema": {
"version": 2,
"template": "threshold_cross",
"sourceKind": "market_data",
"sourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/",
"sourceField": "Yahoo Finance daily closing price (indicators.quote.close, USD)",
"subject": "QQQ",
"metric": "closing price",
"direction": "below",
"threshold": "733.69",
"timeWindowLabel": "at 2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
"openAt": "2026-09-25T12:05:04.403Z",
"closeAt": "2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
"resolveAt": "2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z",
"backCondition": "QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly below 733.69 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC.",
"fadeCondition": "QQQ's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 733.69 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.",
"voidCondition": "No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.",
"deterministic": true,
"notes": [
"structured_scanner",
"us_equity_close_threshold_v1"
]
},
"resolutionSourceName": "Yahoo Finance historical price data",
"resolutionSourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/",
"resolutionMode": "deterministic",
"crossCheckSourceName": null,
"crossCheckSourceUrl": null,
"voidPolicy": null,
"opensAt": "2026-09-25T12:05:04.403Z",
"closesAt": "2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
"resolvesAt": "2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z",
"marketTemplate": "threshold_cross",
"openingReferences": {
"snapshot": {
"sourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/",
"requestUrl": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/QQQ?period1=1790107200&period2=1790424304&interval=1d&includePrePost=false&events=splits",
"cutoff": "2026-09-24T20:00:00.000Z",
"capturedAt": "2026-09-25T12:05:04.403Z",
"responseSha256": "544667b6e37346484db42e37a2e4ce36ec9f4243ca3ab526712a3285a852a84e",
"currency": "USD",
"instrumentType": "ETF",
"symbol": "QQQ",
"value": 741.0999755859375,
"barStartedAt": "2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z",
"observedAt": "2026-09-24T20:00:00.000Z",
"exchangeTimezone": "America/New_York",
"rawEvidence": {
"timestamp": 1790256600,
"close": 741.0999755859375,
"session": {
"start": 1790256600,
"end": 1790280000
},
"meta": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"exchangeTimezoneName": "America/New_York",
"currency": "USD",
"instrumentType": "ETF"
},
"responseSha256": "544667b6e37346484db42e37a2e4ce36ec9f4243ca3ab526712a3285a852a84e",
"calendar": {
"requestUrl": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/QQQ?period1=1790107200&period2=1790366400&interval=1h&includePrePost=false&events=splits",
"responseSha256": "31e934d09051c5f5188e9eba9524b0b11abf3114cd9da2ff24a078ca0ce7968f"
}
},
"price": 741.0999755859375,
"asOf": "2026-09-24T20:00:00.000Z",
"label": "QQQ",
"sourceKind": "yahoo"
},
"leftSnapshot": null,
"rightSnapshot": null,
"automationContract": {
"version": 1,
"templateId": "yahoo_us_etf_close_threshold_v1",
"calendarVersion": "us-equities-2025-2027-v1",
"symbol": "QQQ",
"sessionDate": "2026-09-25",
"sessionOpenAt": "2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z",
"cutoffAt": "2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
"resolvesAt": "2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z",
"provider": "yahoo",
"currency": "USD",
"field": "daily_close",
"threshold": 733.69,
"direction": "below",
"tieResult": "fade",
"missingDataPolicy": "hold_for_verified_observation",
"splitPolicy": "hold_for_review"
}
}
}
}Verified closing-price context, opposing cases, and explicit limits—not a forecast.
GLD's Yahoo Finance USD daily closing price for the US equity session ending 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC is strictly above 394…
Return to the full public list of live, awaiting, resolved, and void THESIS records.
You are at the most recently published market in the archive.