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THESIS
1 markets live 0 close in 24h 8 awaiting resolution Token: ActUbt…pump
Press › Live · Closes Sep 21

TLT closes below 80.6 USD on 2026-09-21

Editorial illustration of stone and steel financial-district architecture.
Editorial illustration

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/history/. Measure only the daily close (indicators.quote.close, not adjusted close) for the exact provider-confirmed session 2026-09-21T13:30:00.000Z to 2026-09-21T20:00:00.000Z, in USD. Resolve BACK when TLT's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly below 80.6 USD at 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC. Resolve FADE when TLT's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 80.6 USD at 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Administrative resolution starts 2026-09-21T20:30:00.000Z. No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price. Calendar us-equities-2025-2027-v1; an unexpected exchange closure requires review, not a shifted deadline.

Filed September 19, 2026 Type Directional Horizon Short Originator thesis-structured-scanner
▲ Back case

Published automated quantitative research includes a BACK case, source citations, and uncertainty. It describes historical prices, not a forecast or an independently reviewed causal thesis. Read the companion research note for the calculations and limits.

▼ Fade case

Published automated quantitative research includes a FADE case, source citations, and uncertainty. It describes historical prices, not a forecast or an independently reviewed causal thesis. Read the companion research note for the calculations and limits.

▼ FADE settlement condition

TLT's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 80.6 USD at 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.

⊕ What would void

No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.

Filed
Sep 19, 2026, 8:13 AM
Reviewed
Review record pending
Live
Sep 19, 2026, 8:09 AM
Pools close
Sep 21, 2026, 4:00 PM
Resolution
Sep 21, 2026, 4:30 PM

Terms frozen at publication; original wording is retained above.

Frozen publication terms and SHA-256
{
  "version": 1,
  "capturedAt": "2026-09-19T12:13:07.003Z",
  "sha256": "4abb969af0ccdef2433d8d283365c417af3c8b4daa82f39aac6bae0cafca72f9",
  "terms": {
    "slug": "tlt-closes-below-80-6-usd-on-2026-09-21",
    "title": "TLT closes below 80.6 USD on 2026-09-21",
    "statement": "TLT's Yahoo Finance USD daily closing price for the US equity session ending 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC is strictly below 80.6.",
    "falsifier": "Resolve FADE if TLT's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 80.6 USD at 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Missing evidence is pending, not FADE or automatic VOID.",
    "resolutionRule": "Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/history/. Measure only the daily close (indicators.quote.close, not adjusted close) for the exact provider-confirmed session 2026-09-21T13:30:00.000Z to 2026-09-21T20:00:00.000Z, in USD. Resolve BACK when TLT's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly below 80.6 USD at 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC. Resolve FADE when TLT's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 80.6 USD at 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Administrative resolution starts 2026-09-21T20:30:00.000Z. No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price. Calendar us-equities-2025-2027-v1; an unexpected exchange closure requires review, not a shifted deadline.",
    "settlementSchema": {
      "version": 2,
      "template": "threshold_cross",
      "sourceKind": "market_data",
      "sourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/history/",
      "sourceField": "Yahoo Finance daily closing price (indicators.quote.close, USD)",
      "subject": "TLT",
      "metric": "closing price",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": "80.6",
      "timeWindowLabel": "at 2026-09-21T20:00:00.000Z",
      "openAt": "2026-09-19T12:09:58.180Z",
      "closeAt": "2026-09-21T20:00:00.000Z",
      "resolveAt": "2026-09-21T20:30:00.000Z",
      "backCondition": "TLT's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly below 80.6 USD at 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC.",
      "fadeCondition": "TLT's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 80.6 USD at 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.",
      "voidCondition": "No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.",
      "deterministic": true,
      "notes": [
        "structured_scanner",
        "us_equity_close_threshold_v1"
      ]
    },
    "resolutionSourceName": "Yahoo Finance historical price data",
    "resolutionSourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/history/",
    "resolutionMode": "deterministic",
    "crossCheckSourceName": null,
    "crossCheckSourceUrl": null,
    "voidPolicy": null,
    "opensAt": "2026-09-19T12:09:58.180Z",
    "closesAt": "2026-09-21T20:00:00.000Z",
    "resolvesAt": "2026-09-21T20:30:00.000Z",
    "marketTemplate": "threshold_cross",
    "openingReferences": {
      "snapshot": {
        "sourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT/history/",
        "requestUrl": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/TLT?period1=1789588800&period2=1789906198&interval=1d&includePrePost=false&events=splits",
        "cutoff": "2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z",
        "capturedAt": "2026-09-19T12:09:58.180Z",
        "responseSha256": "1eb3ac57ad656e328f0c166a8852a66dcac002fa6a552c45e8efca768f2144d1",
        "currency": "USD",
        "instrumentType": "ETF",
        "symbol": "TLT",
        "value": 81.25,
        "barStartedAt": "2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z",
        "observedAt": "2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z",
        "exchangeTimezone": "America/New_York",
        "rawEvidence": {
          "timestamp": 1789738200,
          "close": 81.25,
          "session": {
            "start": 1789738200,
            "end": 1789761600
          },
          "meta": {
            "symbol": "TLT",
            "exchangeTimezoneName": "America/New_York",
            "currency": "USD",
            "instrumentType": "ETF"
          },
          "responseSha256": "1eb3ac57ad656e328f0c166a8852a66dcac002fa6a552c45e8efca768f2144d1"
        },
        "price": 81.25,
        "asOf": "2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z",
        "label": "TLT",
        "sourceKind": "yahoo"
      },
      "leftSnapshot": null,
      "rightSnapshot": null,
      "automationContract": {
        "version": 1,
        "templateId": "yahoo_us_etf_close_threshold_v1",
        "calendarVersion": "us-equities-2025-2027-v1",
        "symbol": "TLT",
        "sessionDate": "2026-09-21",
        "sessionOpenAt": "2026-09-21T13:30:00.000Z",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-09-21T20:00:00.000Z",
        "resolvesAt": "2026-09-21T20:30:00.000Z",
        "provider": "yahoo",
        "currency": "USD",
        "field": "daily_close",
        "threshold": 80.6,
        "direction": "below",
        "tieResult": "fade",
        "missingDataPolicy": "hold_for_verified_observation",
        "splitPolicy": "hold_for_review"
      }
    }
  }
}
BACK condition
TLT's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly below 80.6 USD at 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC.
FADE condition
TLT's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle below 80.6 USD at 2026-09-21 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.
VOID condition
No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.
Source field / metric
Yahoo Finance daily closing price (indicators.quote.close, USD) / closing price
Direction / threshold
below / 80.6
Published window
at 2026-09-21T20:00:00.000Z · opens 2026-09-19T12:09:58.180Z · closes 2026-09-21T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-09-21T20:30:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • us_equity_close_threshold_v1

Quantitative research: TLT closes below 80.6 USD on 2026-09-21

Verified closing-price context, opposing cases, and explicit limits—not a forecast.

Originator: thesis-structured-scanner · Support: thesis-structured-scanner
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