Skip to content
Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
1 markets live 1 close in 24h 8 awaiting resolution New here? Start with the guide →
Press › Closing · Closes Sep 25

Will GLD close above $394.82 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026?

SPDR Gold Shares — a fund designed to track the price of gold.

Read both cases ↓ · Exact rules ↓

BACK — claim met: GLD closes strictly above $394.82.

FADE — other outcome: GLD closes at or below $394.82, including equality.

Positions close: Sep 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

Verified research reference: $391.69 on Sep 24, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC. Threshold is 0.80% above that close.

This dated reference is not a live quote or the settlement price. Source [1] ↗

Editorial illustration of unmarked precious-metal bullion bars.
Editorial illustration
Filed September 25, 2026 Type Directional Horizon Short Originator thesis-structured-scanner

Automated quantitative context, verified against its saved source. Descriptive history, not a forecast or independent human research.

▲ Back case

BACK requires the eventual contractual close to be strictly above $394.8200. The trailing 20-session price change was -7.03%. The trailing price change does not support the direction BACK needs; a reversal or different future path would be required. In the 21 observed historical closes, 16 were strictly above the proposed threshold. Those observations describe this historical window, not the chance of BACK winning. [1]

▼ Fade case

FADE wins if the contractual close is at or below $394.8200, including equality. Historical daily-return sample standard deviation was 1.45%; observed closes ranged from $391.6900 to $422.6000. Price changes can reverse, jump, or exceed that historical range. Trend continuation and this small historical sample do not establish a predictive edge for either side. [1]

▼ FADE settlement condition

GLD's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 394.82 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.

⊕ What would void

No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.

[1] Yahoo completed daily closes ↗ · Calculations, source receipt & limitations

Published
Sep 25, 2026, 12:05 PM UTC
Research verification
Automated source recomputation passed. Not independent human review.
Scheduled opening
Sep 25, 2026, 12:05 PM UTC
Pools close
Sep 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Resolution
Sep 25, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Frozen publication terms & technical evidence

Published wording

Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/history/. Measure only the daily close (indicators.quote.close, not adjusted close) for the exact provider-confirmed session 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z to 2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z, in USD. Resolve BACK when GLD's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly above 394.82 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC. Resolve FADE when GLD's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 394.82 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Administrative resolution starts 2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z. No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price. Calendar us-equities-2025-2027-v1; an unexpected exchange closure requires review, not a shifted deadline.

Frozen publication terms match the validated contract; the stored wording is retained here.

Frozen publication terms and SHA-256
{
  "version": 1,
  "capturedAt": "2026-09-25T12:05:40.845Z",
  "sha256": "66b65676f4fe0ef6e67c8cd4439b3d494f75d962d566b722b5c5bd23e71323f7",
  "terms": {
    "slug": "gld-closes-above-394-82-usd-on-2026-09-25",
    "title": "GLD closes above 394.82 USD on 2026-09-25",
    "statement": "GLD's Yahoo Finance USD daily closing price for the US equity session ending 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC is strictly above 394.82.",
    "falsifier": "Resolve FADE if GLD's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 394.82 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Missing evidence is pending, not FADE or automatic VOID.",
    "resolutionRule": "Use https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/history/. Measure only the daily close (indicators.quote.close, not adjusted close) for the exact provider-confirmed session 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z to 2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z, in USD. Resolve BACK when GLD's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly above 394.82 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC. Resolve FADE when GLD's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 394.82 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE. Administrative resolution starts 2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z. No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price. Calendar us-equities-2025-2027-v1; an unexpected exchange closure requires review, not a shifted deadline.",
    "settlementSchema": {
      "version": 2,
      "template": "threshold_cross",
      "sourceKind": "market_data",
      "sourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/history/",
      "sourceField": "Yahoo Finance daily closing price (indicators.quote.close, USD)",
      "subject": "GLD",
      "metric": "closing price",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": "394.82",
      "timeWindowLabel": "at 2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
      "openAt": "2026-09-25T12:05:04.403Z",
      "closeAt": "2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
      "resolveAt": "2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z",
      "backCondition": "GLD's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly above 394.82 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC.",
      "fadeCondition": "GLD's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 394.82 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.",
      "voidCondition": "No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.",
      "deterministic": true,
      "notes": [
        "structured_scanner",
        "us_equity_close_threshold_v1"
      ]
    },
    "resolutionSourceName": "Yahoo Finance historical price data",
    "resolutionSourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/history/",
    "resolutionMode": "deterministic",
    "crossCheckSourceName": null,
    "crossCheckSourceUrl": null,
    "voidPolicy": null,
    "opensAt": "2026-09-25T12:05:04.403Z",
    "closesAt": "2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
    "resolvesAt": "2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z",
    "marketTemplate": "threshold_cross",
    "openingReferences": {
      "snapshot": {
        "sourceUrl": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/history/",
        "requestUrl": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/GLD?period1=1790107200&period2=1790424304&interval=1d&includePrePost=false&events=splits",
        "cutoff": "2026-09-24T20:00:00.000Z",
        "capturedAt": "2026-09-25T12:05:04.403Z",
        "responseSha256": "95631c96fc3696902a72e9fc53b31908002538785c99fa27d86e99eb058c67f1",
        "currency": "USD",
        "instrumentType": "ETF",
        "symbol": "GLD",
        "value": 391.69000244140625,
        "barStartedAt": "2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z",
        "observedAt": "2026-09-24T20:00:00.000Z",
        "exchangeTimezone": "America/New_York",
        "rawEvidence": {
          "timestamp": 1790256600,
          "close": 391.69000244140625,
          "session": {
            "start": 1790256600,
            "end": 1790280000
          },
          "meta": {
            "symbol": "GLD",
            "exchangeTimezoneName": "America/New_York",
            "currency": "USD",
            "instrumentType": "ETF"
          },
          "responseSha256": "95631c96fc3696902a72e9fc53b31908002538785c99fa27d86e99eb058c67f1",
          "calendar": {
            "requestUrl": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/GLD?period1=1790107200&period2=1790366400&interval=1h&includePrePost=false&events=splits",
            "responseSha256": "22e489a6f89f6378901e799963e58eed6460513777f2508114b37111981e6760"
          }
        },
        "price": 391.69000244140625,
        "asOf": "2026-09-24T20:00:00.000Z",
        "label": "GLD",
        "sourceKind": "yahoo"
      },
      "leftSnapshot": null,
      "rightSnapshot": null,
      "automationContract": {
        "version": 1,
        "templateId": "yahoo_us_etf_close_threshold_v1",
        "calendarVersion": "us-equities-2025-2027-v1",
        "symbol": "GLD",
        "sessionDate": "2026-09-25",
        "sessionOpenAt": "2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z",
        "resolvesAt": "2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z",
        "provider": "yahoo",
        "currency": "USD",
        "field": "daily_close",
        "threshold": 394.82,
        "direction": "above",
        "tieResult": "fade",
        "missingDataPolicy": "hold_for_verified_observation",
        "splitPolicy": "hold_for_review"
      }
    }
  }
}
BACK condition
GLD's Yahoo Finance daily closing price is strictly above 394.82 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC.
FADE condition
GLD's Yahoo Finance daily closing price does not settle above 394.82 USD at 2026-09-25 20:00 UTC; equality resolves FADE.
VOID condition
No automatic VOID: unavailable, conflicting, invalid or split-affected evidence remains pending for verified observation or explicit operator review; never substitute a different session or live price.
Source field / metric
Yahoo Finance daily closing price (indicators.quote.close, USD) / closing price
Direction / threshold
above / 394.82
Published window
at 2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z · opens 2026-09-25T12:05:04.403Z · closes 2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z · administrative resolve 2026-09-25T20:30:00.000Z
  • structured_scanner
  • us_equity_close_threshold_v1

Quantitative research: GLD closes above 394.82 USD on 2026-09-25

Verified closing-price context, opposing cases, and explicit limits—not a forecast.

Originator: thesis-structured-scanner · Support: thesis-structured-scanner
Back to archive

Browse the archive

Return to the full public list of live, awaiting, resolved, and void THESIS records.

Newer →

No newer thesis

You are at the most recently published market in the archive.