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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
The market record

Find a claim.
Follow the evidence.

Read the question, inspect its evidence, then decide whether to participate. Live claims appear first; the complete historical record stays available.

Published claims
1,154
Live claims
0
Awaiting outcomes
8
Claim outcomes
1,146

1154 claims · All claims Same selection in Research →

SPYBACK · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 755 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SPY close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:46 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 678 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance QQQ close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:45 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYBACK · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 758 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SPY close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:44 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 674 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance QQQ close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:43 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 693 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance QQQ close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:32 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYBACK · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 765 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SPY close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:31 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 717 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance QQQ close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:30 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 779 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SPY close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:17 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 777 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SPY close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:16 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 708 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance QQQ close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:15 UTC
Staked pool2.2K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 82 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance TLT close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:14 UTC
Staked pool1.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDBACK · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 393 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance GLD close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:13 UTC
Staked pool1.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 393 by Aug 6 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance GLD close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 6, 2026, 20:19 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
ETHFADE · outcome recorded

ETH closes above 1950 by Aug 6 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance ETH-USD close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 6, 2026, 20:18 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
BTCFADE · outcome recorded

BTC closes above 66000 by Aug 6 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance BTC-USD close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 6, 2026, 20:17 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 82 by Aug 5 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance TLT close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 5, 2026, 20:09 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDBACK · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 377 by Aug 5 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance GLD close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 5, 2026, 20:08 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
ETHBACK · outcome recorded

ETH closes above 1900 by Aug 5 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance ETH-USD close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 5, 2026, 20:07 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
BTCFADE · outcome recorded

BTC closes above 65500 by Aug 5 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance BTC-USD close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 5, 2026, 20:06 UTC
Staked pool4.9K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules