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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
The market record

Find a claim.
Follow the evidence.

Read the question, inspect its evidence, then decide whether to participate. Live claims appear first; the complete historical record stays available.

Published claims
1,154
Live claims
0
Awaiting outcomes
8
Claim outcomes
1,146

1154 claims · All claims Same selection in Research →

TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 82 by Aug 9 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance TLT close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 9, 2026, 20:10 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 402 by Aug 9 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance GLD close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 9, 2026, 20:08 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

ETHFADE · outcome recorded

ETH closes above 1950 by Aug 9 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance ETH-USD close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 9, 2026, 20:07 UTC
Staked pool4.7K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 82 by Aug 8 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance TLT close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 8, 2026, 20:46 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 402 by Aug 8 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance GLD close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 8, 2026, 20:45 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

XLF / XLUBACK · outcome recorded

XLF outperforms XLU through Aug 7

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance XLF and XLU closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 8, 2026, 20:25 UTC
Staked pool5.7K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

QQQ / IWMBACK · outcome recorded

QQQ outperforms IWM through Aug 7

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance QQQ and IWM closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 8, 2026, 20:24 UTC
Staked pool5.7K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

SPY / TLTBACK · outcome recorded

SPY outperforms TLT through Aug 7

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SPY and TLT closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 8, 2026, 20:23 UTC
Staked pool5.7K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

DIA / IWMFADE · outcome recorded

DIA outperforms IWM through Aug 7

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 8, 2026, 20:21 UTC
Staked pool5.7K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

SOL / ETHBACK · outcome recorded

SOL outperforms ETH through Aug 7

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SOL-USD and ETH-USD closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 8, 2026, 20:20 UTC
Staked pool5.7K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

NVDA / AMDBACK · outcome recorded

NVDA outperforms AMD through Aug 7

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance NVDA and AMD closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 8, 2026, 20:19 UTC
Staked pool4.4K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

GLD / SLVFADE · outcome recorded

GLD outperforms SLV through Aug 7

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance GLD and SLV closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 8, 2026, 20:18 UTC
Staked pool3.2K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

BTC / ETHBACK · outcome recorded

BTC outperforms ETH through Aug 7

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance BTC-USD and ETH-USD closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 8, 2026, 20:17 UTC
Staked pool2.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 681 by Aug 7 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance QQQ close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedAug 7, 2026, 20:47 UTC
Staked pool6.1K THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.