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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
The market record

Find a claim.
Follow the evidence.

Read the question, inspect its evidence, then decide whether to participate. Live claims appear first; the complete historical record stays available.

Published claims
1,155
Live claims
0
Awaiting outcomes
8
Claim outcomes
1,147

1155 claims · All claims Same selection in Research →

SPY / TLTBACK · outcome recorded

SPY outperforms TLT through May 29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SPY and TLT closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:18 UTC
Staked pool28.5 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

QQQ / IWMBACK · outcome recorded

QQQ outperforms IWM through May 29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance QQQ and IWM closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:18 UTC
Staked pool28.5 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

GLD / SLVBACK · outcome recorded

GLD outperforms SLV through May 29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance GLD and SLV closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:18 UTC
Staked pool28.5 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

DIA / IWMFADE · outcome recorded

DIA outperforms IWM through May 29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance DIA and IWM closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:18 UTC
Staked pool28.5 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

SOL / ETHFADE · outcome recorded

SOL outperforms ETH through May 29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SOL-USD and ETH-USD closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:18 UTC
Staked pool28.5 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

ARKK / QQQBACK · outcome recorded

ARKK outperforms QQQ through May 29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance ARKK and QQQ closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:18 UTC
Staked pool28.5 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

XLE / XLUFADE · outcome recorded

XLE outperforms XLU through May 29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance XLE and XLU closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:03 UTC
Staked pool28.5 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

XLF / XLUBACK · outcome recorded

XLF outperforms XLU through May 29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance XLF and XLU closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:03 UTC
Staked pool28.5 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

NVDA / AMDFADE · outcome recorded

NVDA outperforms AMD through May 29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance NVDA and AMD closes

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:03 UTC
Staked pool28.5 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

SPYBACK · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 753 by May 29 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SPY close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:03 UTC
Staked pool30.4 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 703 by May 29 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance QQQ close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:02 UTC
Staked pool30.4 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 761 by May 29 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance SPY close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:02 UTC
Staked pool30.4 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 710 by May 29 20:00 UTC

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance QQQ close

Historical / unverified research
Outcome recordedMay 30, 2026, 21:02 UTC
Staked pool30.4 THESIS

100% BACK / 0% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.