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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
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The public record

Outcomes & credits.

Every claim leaves a record. Explore outcomes, source evidence and credits to THESIS market balances.

Across the
public record
1,150Claims with recorded outcomes
127Funded settlement batches
126KTHESISGross market credits · includes stake
Browse the record
How to read a receipt

1,150 claim records · Newest outcome first

Page 50 of 58

Funded settlement receiptRecorded FADE

QQQ closes below 707 by May 29 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance QQQ closeOutcome recorded

Positions settled — no winning credits

Pool · THESIS
30.4
Market credits · THESIS
0
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Not applicable — no winning-side positions

No-winning-position allocation: 30.4 THESIS. The entire losing pool was allocated because no positions held the winning side.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 30.4 THESIS.

Burn allocation 15.2 · treasury allocation 15.2 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC. Batch reference ce8316a7-124d-4986-a2cf-0397f89d98ad.

Funded settlement receiptRecorded FADE

SPY closes above 757 by May 29 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance SPY closeOutcome recorded

Positions settled — no winning credits

Pool · THESIS
30.4
Market credits · THESIS
0
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Not applicable — no winning-side positions

No-winning-position allocation: 30.4 THESIS. The entire losing pool was allocated because no positions held the winning side.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 30.4 THESIS.

Burn allocation 15.2 · treasury allocation 15.2 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:37 PM UTC. Batch reference be1dcff6-8c07-42d0-9c7d-27ef9d685fcc.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

Predict Crypto Price Direction via Narrative Strength Analysis

ALIVE bench evidence reviewOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

Geopolitical Events vs. Commodity Market Tops

ALIVE bench evidence reviewOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

Evaluate AI Sector Valuation Amid Competing Beliefs

ALIVE bench evidence reviewOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

Evaluate AI Sector Valuation Amid Competing Beliefs

ALIVE bench evidence reviewOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

Analyze OpenAI Monetization Thesis Strength Versus Market Sentiment

ALIVE bench evidence reviewOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

Model Market Volatility Responses To High-Impact Political Events

ALIVE bench evidence reviewOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

Geopolitical Events vs. Commodity Market Tops

ALIVE bench evidence reviewOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

Identify Asset Price Tops Using Narrative Exhaustion Signals

ALIVE bench evidence reviewOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

Predict Crypto Price Direction via Narrative Strength Analysis

ALIVE bench evidence reviewOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

QQQ keeps outperforming IWM this week

Yahoo Finance historical price dataOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

SPY outperforms TLT through May 9

Yahoo Finance historical price dataOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Claim outcomeRecorded VOID

XLF outperforms XLU through May 9

Yahoo Finance historical price dataOutcome recorded

Outcome only · no positions to credit

This claim resolved without funded positions. No account payment was required.

Funded settlement receiptRecorded BACK

ETH closes above 2050 by May 23 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance ETH-USD closeOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
30.4
Market credits · THESIS
30.4
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 30.4 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:23 PM UTC. Batch reference 498cbbff-395f-4f51-bf2d-a601ea3cbd2f.

Funded settlement receiptRecorded BACK

BTC closes above 76000 by May 23 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closeOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
30.4
Market credits · THESIS
30.4
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 30.4 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:23 PM UTC. Batch reference 9c5205fe-2f70-4c28-aa08-d575060c42bb.

Funded settlement receiptRecorded BACK

BTC closes above 76500 by May 23 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closeOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
30.4
Market credits · THESIS
30.4
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 30.4 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:23 PM UTC. Batch reference 935684bc-c48a-4aa4-a9d3-b297fed0077d.

Funded settlement receiptRecorded FADE

BTC closes above 78500 by May 23 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closeOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
28
Market credits · THESIS
28
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 28 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:23 PM UTC. Batch reference 0ac17845-9f2d-4a86-9c87-57271ecc5a28.

Funded settlement receiptRecorded FADE

BTC closes above 79500 by May 23 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closeOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Historical outcome conflict. Outcome records need review. Claim status: VOID / VOID; resolution: FADE; account batch: FADE. These records do not agree. No correction, refund or new payment is implied.

Pool · THESIS
28
Market credits · THESIS
28
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 28 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:23 PM UTC. Batch reference b85bf26c-a8ff-47c1-9303-f11415dab550.

Funded settlement receiptRecorded FADE

BTC closes above 79000 by May 23 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closeOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Historical outcome conflict. Outcome records need review. Claim status: VOID / VOID; resolution: FADE; account batch: FADE. These records do not agree. No correction, refund or new payment is implied.

Pool · THESIS
28
Market credits · THESIS
28
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 28 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:23 PM UTC. Batch reference 09f8e3ed-77b4-4989-891e-c4f5f3bf792c.

Reading the record

Three stages.
Different meanings.

Historical records remain available. Listing a result is not a new certification of its evidence.

01

Outcome

The claim has a recorded result. Even claims with no positions can have an outcome.

02

Market credit

A settlement batch records credits to THESIS accounts. Gross credits include returned stake—not just profit.

03

Withdrawal

A separate wallet transaction. These receipts do not count or confirm wallet withdrawals.

Full totals & fee allocations
Claims with recorded outcomes
Funded settlement batches
Positions settled in those batches
473
THESIS credited to market balances
126K
Percentage fee allocations · THESIS
3.39
No-winning-position allocations · THESIS
145.9K

One claim can have many positions but a single settlement batch. A claim without positions can have an outcome without a funded receipt. These totals use different units; none counts wallet withdrawals.

Settlement credits your THESIS market balance. It does not send tokens to your wallet. A wallet withdrawal is a separate request and transaction.

Under the current rule, 3% of the losing pool is allocated to fees when winning-side positions exist; winners share the remaining losing pool in proportion to their stake. A losing position returns 0. If no one held the winning side, there are no winning credits and the entire losing pool is allocated to the burn and treasury buckets. Those allocations do not prove an on-chain burn or transfer. Solana network costs are separate.