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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
The market record

Find a claim.
Follow the evidence.

Read the question, inspect its evidence, then decide whether to participate. Live claims appear first; the complete historical record stays available.

Published claims
1,154
Live claims
0
Awaiting outcomes
8
Claim outcomes
1,146

1154 claims · All claims Same selection in Research →

TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 76.86 USD on 2026-10-05

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 5, 2026, 20:40 UTC
Staked pool10 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 771.63 USD on 2026-10-02

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 2, 2026, 20:39 UTC
Staked pool9.86 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 732.37 USD on 2026-10-01

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedOct 1, 2026, 20:35 UTC
Staked pool0.53 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 385.95 USD on 2026-09-30

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedSep 30, 2026, 20:32 UTC
Staked pool9.96 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 77.99 USD on 2026-09-29

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedSep 29, 2026, 20:38 UTC
Staked pool0.54 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
SPYFADE · outcome recorded

SPY closes above 779.06 USD on 2026-09-28

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedSep 28, 2026, 20:43 UTC
Staked pool10 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
GLDFADE · outcome recorded

GLD closes above 394.82 USD on 2026-09-25

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedSep 25, 2026, 20:40 UTC
Staked pool0.53 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
QQQFADE · outcome recorded

QQQ closes below 733.69 USD on 2026-09-25

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedSep 25, 2026, 20:40 UTC
Staked pool9.86 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules
TLTFADE · outcome recorded

TLT closes below 80.6 USD on 2026-09-21

Settlement sourceYahoo Finance historical price data

Automated quantitative context
Outcome recordedSep 24, 2026, 22:41 UTC
Staked pool9.96 THESIS

50% BACK / 50% FADE · share of stakeNot a probability or forecast.

Read outcome & evidence Rules