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Settlement data. Public outcomes.The THESIS method ↗
THESIS
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The public record

Outcomes & credits.

Every claim leaves a record. Explore outcomes, source evidence and credits to THESIS market balances.

Across the
public record
1,137Claims with recorded outcomes
114Funded settlement batches
125.9KTHESISGross market credits · includes stake
Browse the record
How to read a receipt

114 claim records · Newest outcome first

Page 6 of 6

Funded settlement receiptRecorded BACK

ETH closes above 2100 by May 23 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance ETH-USD closeOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Historical outcome conflict. Outcome records need review. Claim status: VOID / VOID; resolution: BACK; account batch: BACK. These records do not agree. No correction, refund or new payment is implied.

Pool · THESIS
30.4
Market credits · THESIS
30.4
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 30.4 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:17 PM UTC. Batch reference 947606ae-1a05-46a5-a053-b308ce0c801f.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded FADE

BTC closes above 77500 by May 23 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closeOutcome recorded

Positions settled — no winning credits

Historical outcome conflict. Outcome records need review. Claim status: VOID / VOID; resolution: FADE; account batch: FADE. These records do not agree. No correction, refund or new payment is implied.

Pool · THESIS
30.4
Market credits · THESIS
0
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Not applicable — no winning-side positions

No-winning-position allocation: 30.4 THESIS. The entire losing pool was allocated because no positions held the winning side.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 30.4 THESIS.

Burn allocation 15.2 · treasury allocation 15.2 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC. Batch reference 87631c23-1b22-4465-888e-ac737e1375b4.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded FADE

BTC closes above 77000 by May 22 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closeOutcome recorded

Positions settled — no winning credits

Historical outcome conflict. Outcome records need review. Claim status: VOID / VOID; resolution: FADE; account batch: FADE. These records do not agree. No correction, refund or new payment is implied.

Pool · THESIS
30.4
Market credits · THESIS
0
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Not applicable — no winning-side positions

No-winning-position allocation: 30.4 THESIS. The entire losing pool was allocated because no positions held the winning side.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 30.4 THESIS.

Burn allocation 15.2 · treasury allocation 15.2 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC. Batch reference 82831221-45ab-45bc-b92c-01a49faab25b.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded FADE

ETH closes above 2100 by May 22 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance ETH-USD closeOutcome recorded

Positions settled — no winning credits

Historical outcome conflict. Outcome records need review. Claim status: VOID / VOID; resolution: FADE; account batch: FADE. These records do not agree. No correction, refund or new payment is implied.

Pool · THESIS
30.4
Market credits · THESIS
0
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Not applicable — no winning-side positions

No-winning-position allocation: 30.4 THESIS. The entire losing pool was allocated because no positions held the winning side.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 30.4 THESIS.

Burn allocation 15.2 · treasury allocation 15.2 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC. Batch reference 72e4d1b5-4fd7-46d4-87d4-fdf3ca2a41d9.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded FADE

BTC closes above 77500 by May 22 20:00 UTC

Yahoo Finance BTC-USD closeOutcome recorded

Positions settled — no winning credits

Historical outcome conflict. Outcome records need review. Claim status: VOID / VOID; resolution: FADE; account batch: FADE. These records do not agree. No correction, refund or new payment is implied.

Pool · THESIS
30.4
Market credits · THESIS
0
Positions settled
5
Credit & fee breakdown
Not applicable — no winning-side positions

No-winning-position allocation: 30.4 THESIS. The entire losing pool was allocated because no positions held the winning side.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 30.4 THESIS.

Burn allocation 15.2 · treasury allocation 15.2 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Aug 4, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC. Batch reference c4d8bbfb-03d2-477c-a593-6b1c90ef5141.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded FADE

BTC realizes less upside volatility than ETH through May 10

Binance BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT spot pricesOutcome recorded

Positions settled — no winning credits

Pool · THESIS
4
Market credits · THESIS
0
Positions settled
1
Credit & fee breakdown
Not applicable — no winning-side positions

No-winning-position allocation: 4 THESIS. The entire losing pool was allocated because no positions held the winning side.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 4 THESIS.

Burn allocation 2 · treasury allocation 2 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded May 12, 2026, 9:14 AM UTC. Batch reference d3007fa5-621e-4507-9e6e-1445dc80c4d4.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded BACK

WTI stays above 80 into next Friday

TradingView / exchange settlement for front-month WTI crudeOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
18
Market credits · THESIS
18
Positions settled
3
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100.05 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0.00 THESIS.

Winning pool 18 / losing pool 0.01 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0.00 · treasury allocation 0.00 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded May 9, 2026, 4:03 PM UTC. Batch reference d169b328-a502-4370-a646-ecd8c06b8f99.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded BACK

Bitcoin Still Wins the Security Rotation

Yahoo Finance historical data for BTC-USD with ETH-USD cross-checkOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
2K
Market credits · THESIS
2K
Positions settled
1
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 2K / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded May 9, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC. Batch reference 05f1e38f-22cc-4652-b035-b63b8b84192b.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded VOID

The Relief Rally Is Still a Squeeze

Yahoo Finance historical data for iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) with CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) cross-checkOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
400
Market credits · THESIS
400
Positions settled
1
Credit & fee breakdown
Principal credited to market balances

400 THESIS credited back across the settled positions.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded May 9, 2026, 1:12 PM UTC. Batch reference f66dd64f-4ca3-4e2a-8764-db388dbc7e47.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded VOID

Mega-Cap Defense Still Beats Cyclical Reopening

Yahoo Finance historical data for Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) with iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) cross-checkOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
7.5K
Market credits · THESIS
7.5K
Positions settled
2
Credit & fee breakdown
Principal credited to market balances

7.5K THESIS credited back across the settled positions.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded May 4, 2026, 10:32 PM UTC. Batch reference 483d0fab-30fb-4578-9d34-e6b33d8541b9.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded VOID

AI Euphoria Still Beats a Soft Labor Tape

Yahoo Finance NVDA historical data with U.S. Department of Labor weekly unemployment-insurance claims archive cross-checkOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
350
Market credits · THESIS
350
Positions settled
2
Credit & fee breakdown
Principal credited to market balances

350 THESIS credited back across the settled positions.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded May 3, 2026, 11:51 AM UTC. Batch reference e790ecb9-0faa-44c8-bb56-f8c1a56d65f3.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded VOID

Oil Shock Risk Is Still Underpriced

Yahoo Finance historical data for Brent crude futures (BZ=F) with SPY cross-checkOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
100
Market credits · THESIS
100
Positions settled
1
Credit & fee breakdown
Principal credited to market balances

100 THESIS credited back across the settled positions.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 0 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded May 3, 2026, 11:51 AM UTC. Batch reference 9a4c74cb-0d28-492a-99e3-06ea10ce3dbc.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded BACK

ICP Breaks If Turnover Dries Up

CoinGecko Internet Computer market_chart/range daily USD price and total_volumes for the fixed 2026-04-17 to 2026-05-01 windowOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
350
Market credits · THESIS
350
Positions settled
1
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 350 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded May 3, 2026, 11:51 AM UTC. Batch reference 9cf81f5c-4790-4628-b1c7-976923d74fd1.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Funded settlement receiptRecorded BACK

The Narrative Premium Is Overriding the Oil Shock

Yahoo Finance historical data for SPY with Brent crude futures (BZ=F) cross-checkOutcome recorded

Market balance credits recorded

Pool · THESIS
100
Market credits · THESIS
100
Positions settled
1
Credit & fee breakdown
Total market credit per 100 THESIS on the winning side

100 THESIS total credit, including 100 THESIS stake. Net profit is total credit minus stake.

Percentage fee allocation: 0 THESIS.

Winning pool 100 / losing pool 0 THESIS.

Burn allocation 0 · treasury allocation 0 THESIS. These are allocations, not confirmation of on-chain transfers.

Account batch recorded Apr 29, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC. Batch reference eacfd223-14f7-4a9b-9195-8ed5de58198a.

Read original claim Recorded evidence
Reading the record

Three stages.
Different meanings.

Historical records remain available. Listing a result is not a new certification of its evidence.

01

Outcome

The claim has a recorded result. Even claims with no positions can have an outcome.

02

Market credit

A settlement batch records credits to THESIS accounts. Gross credits include returned stake—not just profit.

03

Withdrawal

A separate wallet transaction. These receipts do not count or confirm wallet withdrawals.

Full totals & fee allocations
Claims with recorded outcomes
1137
Funded settlement batches
114
Positions settled in those batches
447
THESIS credited to market balances
125.9K
Percentage fee allocations · THESIS
2.16
No-winning-position allocations · THESIS
145.9K

One claim can have many positions but a single settlement batch. A claim without positions can have an outcome without a funded receipt. These totals use different units; none counts wallet withdrawals.

Settlement credits your THESIS market balance. It does not send tokens to your wallet. A wallet withdrawal is a separate request and transaction.

Under the current rule, 3% of the losing pool is allocated to fees when winning-side positions exist; winners share the remaining losing pool in proportion to their stake. A losing position returns 0. If no one held the winning side, there are no winning credits and the entire losing pool is allocated to the burn and treasury buckets. Those allocations do not prove an on-chain burn or transfer. Solana network costs are separate.